Lunch Program - The Future of Humankind

Milken Institute Strategic Updates and Organizational Growth

• New Organizational Structures
  • Formalized a new Center for Strategic Philanthropy in the spring to assist leading global families with philanthropic strategies.
  • Initial focus of the Center is medical work, with imminent expansion into other sectors.
  • Specific ongoing projects target Alzheimer's disease, bipolar disorder, and brain cancer.
• Regional and Sector Initiatives
  • Africa Investment: Hosted high-level meetings in Kenya in July during the U.S. administration's visit, securing participation from U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and Kenyan cabinet secretaries to scale investment.
  • Digital Technology: Expanded research and advocacy on digital payments and currencies to broaden global capital access.
  • Healthcare Policy: The "Faster Cures" group advanced the "21st Century Cures" legislation, emphasizing the integration of patient perspectives in drug development.
• Global Presence Expansion
  • Established a physical headquarters in the UK, appointing James Morgan as the new Head of Europe.
  • Morgan's mandate includes developing European research strategy, assembling local fellow teams, and leading fundraising efforts.
• Mission and Methodology
  • Core mission defined as increasing global prosperity by widening access to capital, creating jobs, and improving health.
  • Operates as a "do tank" (action-oriented think tank) convening diverse stakeholders to accelerate the sharing of best practices and failures.
  • Convened 147 events in 2014, ranging from small roundtables to global conferences.
• Partnership Ecosystem
  • Secured substantive support from major strategic partners including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, USAID, Mayo Clinic, and various asset management firms (e.g., Two Sigma, Winton Capital, Guggenheim Partners).

Panel Discussion: The Future of Humankind (2024–2124)

Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy

• AI Trajectory and Impact
  • Peter Schwartz (Salesforce): Predicts a gradual evolution of "little AI" reducing friction in processes rather than an immediate singularity; identifies "artificial stupidity" as a greater near-term risk than sentient AI.
  • Lord Matt Ridley: Argues that machine intelligence will primarily emerge from network effects (e.g., the internet and blockchain) rather than individual machines, potentially disintermediating traditional roles like law and accounting.
  • Martin Rees: Notes that while machines will take over skilled tasks (diagnosis, surgery), society must ensure the redistribution of funds to maintain dignified employment for roles requiring empathy (caregiving, plumbing).
• Public Sentiment and Acceptance
  • Audience polling regarding medical diagnosis showed a split opinion: roughly 50% prefer human doctors, while 50% are open to AI diagnosis.
  • Discussants agree that while automation creates efficiency, it poses social challenges regarding job displacement and the need for "empathy economies."

Biotechnology, Longevity, and Genetic Engineering

• CRISPR and Human Enhancement
  • Current Applications: Immediate focus on eliminating predictable genetic diseases; long-term potential for creating "enhanced human beings" with increased strength, intelligence, and longevity.
  • Longevity Projections: Discussion centers on "horizon doubling," where extending life by 50 years allows individuals to witness further biological advances, potentially leading to lifespans measured in centuries.
  • Max Lifespan Barrier: Martin Rees highlights that maximum lifespan (currently ~115 years) has not increased significantly in 50 years despite a 30% rise in average life expectancy; CRISPR could unlock this barrier by silencing telomere shortening.
• Ethical and Social Concerns
  • ** Eugenics and Public Will:** Matt Ridley questions whether society actually desires "better" children, noting low adoption of donor sperm banks for intelligence enhancement despite existing IVF capabilities.
  • Biosecurity Risks: Martin Rees identifies "bio-hacking" and gain-of-function experiments as major threats, warning that decentralized biotech expertise could lead to global pandemics or bio-terror attacks that are harder to control than nuclear weapons.
  • Societal Fragility: Rees argues that modern society is more fragile to pandemics than historical agrarian societies due to interconnectedness and reliance on complex supply chains, where even minor health disruptions could cause societal breakdown.

Space Exploration and Post-Human Evolution

• Future Scenarios
  • Solar System Colonization: Martin Rees predicts a small colony on Mars within the next few decades, driven by high-risk adventurers and potential self-modification for survival in alien environments.
  • Interstellar Travel: Peter Schwartz envisions a "100-Year Starship" project to establish a galactic civilization, though Rees remains skeptical about human travel beyond the solar system due to energy constraints and the superior efficiency of robotics.
  • Post-Human Evolution: Consensus that distinct post-human species will likely evolve first in space environments (Mars or orbital stations) due to greater evolutionary pressures and fewer ethical constraints.
• Technological Constraints
  • Energy Challenge: The primary barrier to space travel is the lack of low-cost, high-energy propulsion; current transport speeds have not improved significantly in the modern era due to fuel limitations.
  • Robotic vs. Human Exploration: Robotics will likely dominate the exploration of the solar system, with human presence reserved for adventure and specific high-value tasks.

Food Security, Energy, and Climate Policy

• Food Production and Agriculture
  • Yield Improvements: Matt Ridley notes that agricultural yields are improving to the point where feeding a population of 9.5 billion may require less land than today, potentially allowing for reforestation.
  • Biotech Applications: CRISPR is expected to modify livestock (e.g., reducing methane in cows) and create artificial food sources (e.g., Hampton Creek's molecular food synthesis).
  • Land Use Shift: The shift from farmland to nature (e.g., New England) is currently hindered by biofuel mandates (5% of crops diverted to fuel), which Ridley labels a "stupid program."
• Energy Future and Climate
  • Energy-Poverty Correlation: Martin Rees and Peter Schwartz agree that energy access is the fundamental driver of prosperity; Africa and developing nations require affordable, clean energy to amplify productivity.
  • Nuclear Power: Both Rees and Schwartz identify advanced nuclear power (including waste-fueled fission) as the critical solution for clean, abundant energy, viewing shale gas as a necessary bridge.
  • Climate Policy and Economics: The debate centers on "discount rates" for future generations; ethical low discount rates justify immediate investment in climate mitigation to prevent 22nd-century catastrophes, whereas high rates prioritize current poverty alleviation.
  • Conflict Risks: Schwartz links climate change directly to geopolitical conflict, citing water scarcity (e.g., the Mekong River) as a potential driver of war.

Innovation, Connectivity, and Global Development

• Distributed Manufacturing
  • 3D Printing: Peter Schwartz highlights the shift from shipping physical goods to transmitting digital files for local 3D printing (e.g., custom-fitted shoes in Singapore), disrupting traditional retail logistics.
  • Decentralized Innovation: The West is no longer the sole source of innovation; examples like the electronic cigarette (vaping) originate from China, indicating a global diffusion of R&D.
• Information and Knowledge
  • Wikipedia and Connectivity: Matt Ridley identifies Wikipedia combined with smartphone access as the most significant anti-poverty tool, democratizing knowledge previously hoarded in libraries.
  • Intimate Computing: Transitioning from personal computing to "intimate computing," where devices know the user context to provide personalized services based on "digital exhaust."
• Strategic Recommendations for a Better Future
  • Reduce Inequality: Martin Rees advises governments to minimize inequalities (wealth and opportunity) to reduce the number of "embittered" individuals capable of exploiting bio-tech for harm.
  • Unleash Innovation: Matt Ridley urges the removal of regulatory barriers, specifically critiquing the "precautionary principle" in Europe which he views as stifling beneficial innovation.
  • Universal Connectivity: Peter Schwartz concludes that electricity and digital connectivity should be treated as human rights to ensure the spread of knowledge and the foundation of a prosperous civilization.