Fireside Chat, Interview
MI Breakfast With Bill Richardson, Moderated by Ambassador Charles Ries
- Event Context: The Milken Institute and RAND hosted a joint breakfast conversation in Santa Monica featuring Governor Bill Richardson and Ambassador Charles Reese, marking the first "home-and-away" collaboration between the two Santa Monica-based think tanks.
- The event served as an introduction to Richardson's book, How to Sweet Talk a Shark, co-authored with Kevin Blyer (a former writer for The Daily Show), which applies negotiation tactics used with dictators to everyday life scenarios.
- Upcoming Initiatives: The Milken Institute announced three future events focused on innovation and policy reform:
- Next Event: A conversation with Nobel Laureate Edmund Phelps regarding his book Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change, moderated by Peter Purcell.
- Partnering for Cures: An investor conference in New York scheduled for two weeks hence, uniting scientists, philanthropists, and biotech firms to accelerate funding and delivery of medical treatments.
- California Summit: A private summit on November 21st designed to be smaller than previous iterations, focusing on problem-solving groups tasked with publishing specific suggestions for state-level change.
- North Korea Strategy: Richardson discussed his eight visits to North Korea, including a recent trip with Google CEO Eric Schmidt, highlighting specific negotiation dynamics and objectives.
- Trip Objectives: The mission aimed to secure the release of detained American missionary Kenneth Bae, persuade the leadership to halt nuclear detonations, and leverage Google's technology to introduce the concept of information flow in a closed society.
- Diplomatic Challenges: Richardson noted that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appeared manipulated by hardline military elements despite inconsistent gestures of openness, such as reactivating family talks or opening the Kaesong joint facility.
- Negotiation Tactics: He observed that North Korean diplomats stall by offering only "more time to reach their conclusion" and that physical exhaustion is a critical variable; his previous success in 1995 involved refusing to leave the country until two downed helicopter pilots were released.
- Future Policy: Richardson argues against continued isolation, stating that "you can't put any more sanctions on them," and suggests engaging the new leadership to discourage uranium enrichment despite their missile capabilities.
- Sudan Negotiations (Journalist Release): Richardson detailed a complex negotiation to free journalist David Salopek and two Malian assistants from Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir.
- The Compromise: Bashir initially refused to release the two Malians, labeling them "enemies of the state" who must remain; Richardson risked leaving the journalist behind but insisted on a "all or nothing" approach.
- The Breakthrough: Richardson used political pressure and humor, pointing out the optics of a politician taking a white journalist while leaving two black men behind, a move that caused Bashir to laugh and release all three.
- Personal Connection: The deal relied on Richardson's previous 12-year relationship with Bashir, where he had thanked the dictator for prior humanitarian releases, a rare occurrence in US-Sudan relations.
- Venezuela and Colombia (Hugo Chávez): Richardson described using cultural rapport, specifically baseball, to negotiate the release of three American hostages held by the FARC in Colombia.
- The Gift Strategy: After Chávez initially feigned ignorance of the FARC, Richardson gifted him a baseball signed by Mickey Mantle, Duke Snider, and Willie Mays to break the ice.
- The Negotiation: The gift prompted a conversation where Chávez, despite his anti-US stance, agreed to help; he later praised Richardson as one of the only two Americans he liked during a 2008 US campaign event.
- Lesson Learned: The interaction illustrated that even with human rights violators, establishing a personal, cultural connection is essential for achieving specific, narrow objectives like prisoner release.
- Iraq and Saddam Hussein: Richardson recounted a negotiation to free two American contractors who had been detained in an Iraqi prison after a drunken error in Kuwait.
- The Slapstick Error: Upon arrival, Richardson's exhaustion caused him to cross his legs and show the sole of his shoe to Saddam, a supreme cultural insult that caused Saddam to abruptly end the meeting.
- The Stand: Richardson refused to grovel or apologize, maintaining his objective of freeing the contractors, which eventually impressed Saddam enough to grant the release in a surprise gesture.
- Exit Strategy: Saddam attempted to trap Richardson by forcing a church visit and jokingly warning against confession to delay his departure; Richardson recognized the trap and left immediately to avoid a reversal of the agreement.
- Tactical Insight: Richardson emphasized that when dealing with dictators, one must "get out" immediately upon securing the objective, as their moods and decisions can shift rapidly.
- 2008 Presidential Campaign & Endorsement: Richardson reflected on his short campaign and his pivotal, controversial endorsement of Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton.
- The Decision: He described the choice as difficult but driven by a unique connection with Obama, noting Obama's supportive gesture during a 2008 debate when Obama clarified a question about Hurricane Katrina that Richardson had missed.
- The Clinton Conflict: Richardson admitted a strategic error in allowing a public endorsement event at the Super Bowl, which he felt was too early; this contributed to a lasting rift with Bill Clinton, who reportedly still "has not forgiven" him.
- Outcome: While the endorsement did not guarantee a position in the Obama administration, it solidified a friendly relationship with Obama, who maintained personal contact with Richardson throughout the transition.
- Cuba and Alan Gross: Richardson shared a lesson in failure regarding the detention of US contractor Alan Gross in Cuba.
- The Mistake: After believing a deal was reached, Richardson made a public statement to the press about Cuba's failure to release Gross, an action that backfired and led to his immediate expulsion without the prisoner.
- Key Takeaway: Richardson noted that public shaming often makes dictators intractable; the lesson was to avoid putting adversaries in a position where they must double down to save face.
- Iran and Nuclear Negotiations: Richardson offered a cautious outlook on the negotiations with Iran under President Rouhani.
- Drivers for Deal: He attributed Iran's willingness to negotiate to severe economic pressure, noting that Iraq now imports half its food and oil production has halved due to sanctions.
- Skepticism: Richardson warned that the Iranian clerics may curb Rouhani's progress if they feel he has gone too far, and emphasized that the US must "test them" rather than believe statements until concrete actions occur.
- Alliance Concerns: He highlighted the importance of aligning with Israel, citing the regional chaos in Syria and the threat of Hezbollah and Hamas as factors necessitating close cooperation.
- Negotiation Mechanics and Ethics: The discussion covered the practical and moral complexities of high-stakes diplomacy.
- Translator Reliability: Richardson advised assuming translators are not on the negotiator's side, citing instances where they twisted interpretations to force apologies or stall talks.
- Privacy vs. Transparency: He criticized WikiLeaks for publishing confidential cables, arguing that public exposure destroys the trust required for negotiations, though he acknowledged the utility of intelligence from the CIA and NSA.
- Intel Utilization: Richardson revealed using intelligence on the personal lives of UN Security Council ambassadors (specifically extramarital affairs) to schedule votes strategically and achieve policy goals.
- Risk and Personal Safety: Richardson addressed the dangers of entering hostile environments, including North Korea and rebel camps in Africa.
- Hostage Protocols: He noted that visitors to North Korea have their electronic devices confiscated and are tracked; Eric Schmidt's Google maps of gulags were withheld from public release to prevent endangering him or others.
- Rebel Camp Negotiation: Richardson described a tense negotiation with a Sudanese warlord, Karabino, where he ate a raw goat to establish rapport and leveraged the warlord's concern for sick children to trade medical supplies and a Jeep for the release of Red Cross hostages.
- Gamble: He emphasized that entering such zones is a calculated risk, but the objective—saving lives—requires moving past fear to establish immediate, personal connections.
- Lessons on Promises and Politics: Richardson reflected on his own failures to keep promises and the emotional volatility of political negotiations.
- Broken Promises: He noted a minor breach with his book publisher regarding travel budgets and admitted to a political miscalculation regarding a promise to Hillary Clinton during the primaries.
- Timing: He advised that the worst time to make political statements is immediately after an election due to heightened emotions, and that spouses can sometimes be the "worst" negotiators due to their passion.
- Out-of-the-Box Diplomacy: Richardson defended the use of unconventional methods (humor, sports, personal gifts) with dictators, arguing that achieving a narrow goal (like a ceasefire or release) justifies temporary personal rapport with "evil" figures.