Panel
MI Summit 2013 - London: Investment Opportunities and Risks in Africa
Milken InstituteAigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, Karim Anjarwalla, Ade Ayeyemi, Sara Menker, James Mwangi, Staci Warden, Paul Hinks
- Africa's GDP is projected to grow tenfold to $20 trillion by 2060, building on a current baseline of $2 trillion (Stacey).
- New growth opportunities totaling $820 billion in infrastructure, agriculture, and consumer sectors are estimated to be added by 2020 (Stacey).
- Six of the ten fastest-growing economies over the past decade are in Africa and are expected to maintain this trajectory through the next five years (Stacey).
- Africa will become the world's most populous region by 2030, comprising nearly 20% of the global population, with the working-age population surpassing that of Europe and Asia by 2050 (Stacey).
- The middle-class population is expected to expand from 300 million (34% of the total) to over 1 billion (42% of the population) by 2060 (Stacey).
- A demographic shift is anticipated where thousands of professionals return to the continent, transforming a historical brain drain into a major brain gain (James Mwangi).
- Market acceleration is expected as regional integration expands small markets, such as Kenya, into larger blocs like a 120 million person East African Community (James Mwangi).
- Investors are advised to treat capital losses, such as $100,000, as necessary investments to gain the knowledge required to avoid missing billion-dollar opportunities (James Mwangi).
- Institutional reforms and business practice improvements are currently being adopted by clients as foundational elements for investment strategies (Ade Ayyemi).
- The investment strategy may shift toward prioritizing volume and market participation over exorbitant returns, aiming to provide smaller margins to a larger number of participants (Sarah Menker).
- Enforcing existing treaties, such as the EAC free movement agreement, is predicted to yield significant results without requiring broad structural reforms (Karim Anjawala).
- Governments will eventually need to coordinate infrastructure placement based on comparative advantage, such as establishing a single regional stock exchange, to prevent duplication (Karim Anjawala).
- $20 billion is forecast to be invested over the next five years on LNG infrastructure in Mozambique, despite the country's $14 billion GDP (Sarah Menker).
- High-speed rail or marine cruising connecting East and West Africa is envisioned as a future possibility, though currently not a focus of active consideration (James Mwangi).
- The private sector is urged to advocate more strongly for the implementation of regional agreements and for "winner" countries to accept trade-offs (Ade Ayyemi).
- Nigeria is perceived to be undergoing a positive change in reputation, exemplified by a 972 megawatt power plant privatization completed without bribery, contrasting with conditions 10 to 15 years prior (Paul Hinks).
- Access to outstanding local talent is identified as the critical tipping point for success, with execution hinging on the ability to secure this workforce (Ag Imo Kwede).
- Business operations in Anglo-Sphone Africa are expected to become 95% similar to those in the United Kingdom as the region transitions from "esoteric" to "mainstream" status (Karim Anjawala).