Interview, Fireside Chat
MIc'd Up | Part 1: A Conversation with John Chambers and Ken Griffin
- Regulatory authorities are expected to halt expansion of U.S. government scope, with a hope that the administration will enforce fair trade requiring equal market access from trading partners.
- U.S. corporate tax rates are anticipated to change to curb curtailed investment, with reasonable tax reforms expected to be passed later in 2017 between the president's and Paul Ryan's positions.
- Healthcare costs, currently reaching 20 percent of GDP, are projected to become too burdensome, necessitating reform measures expected to move forward within weeks as the Republican Freedom Caucus negotiates with the majority.
- The U.S. is currently five to seven years into a recovery, yet a recession is expected to occur within 12, 18, or 24 months regardless of presidential actions, as the current recovery has been insufficient to raise real standards of living.
- Job growth is considered too slow, with a determination to fix the situation over the next three to five years to ensure America leads the digital revolution and to achieve a 4% GDP growth rate.
- To generate 25 million jobs, the U.S. needs to increase the number of companies going public on the NASDAQ annually from the current 90 to 125 to a target of 300 to 500.
- If betting on countries, the U.S. is the primary choice, with India as a secondary bet due to its coordinated government actions, specifically a potential to double per capita income every seven years and grow the economy at 7% to 10% annually if Modi's approach continues.
- The U.S. is expected to lead in generating affordable broadband for every American at a low price point, while the private sector continues delivering new digital technologies despite a persistent digital divide.
- Infrastructure including roads, ports, airports, and the electrical grid requires re-architecture for greater stability and lower power production costs.
- The education system is expected to transform rapidly as it is currently broken, with pace of change now three to five times faster than the internet, while K-12 programs are insufficient for laying a foundation for a society to prosper 20 years forward.
- Technology needs to be made appealing to diverse groups aged 10 to 14 to capture imagination and teach entrepreneurship early.
- The average big company is expected to last no more than 16 years, with 40% of the Fortune 500 projected to disappear within 10 years, while the next generation of companies is expected to surpass incumbents in three and a half years.
- Roughly 50% of Cisco's workforce is expected to remain inside America, though 65 million overseas jobs should have been brought to the U.S. five to seven years ago.
- High-end immigration laws are expected to be changed through a consensus among House and Senate leadership and the White House, while there is fear that hardening language against non-Americans could harm a foundation where 40% of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants.
- A program to make the U.S. the startup nation again across every state is expected to be created with consensus among Republicans and Democrats in the House, Senate, and White House.
- Roughly 50% of tasks across the room are expected to be replaced by artificial intelligence and machine learning, prompting recruitment of machine learning talent from hotspots like Chile.
- Big banks may be broken up to infuse competition, with hopes that "too big to fail" issues will end within the banking system, though this is considered unlikely.
- Reducing burdensome regulation on large banks and creating incentives for private equity firms to enter banking is expected to benefit consumers.
- If the U.S. moves on a united front, GDP could grow at 4% and average mean household income could grow at 10% to 25% over the next decade.
- A recession occurring in the middle of the administration's initiatives is expected to be a real challenge, with concerns that the nation may fall back into moving too slowly.
- There is a fear that a pan-European trade war could occur following England's efforts to unwind its relationship with the EU.
- The stock market is described as very optimistic, potentially too so, with this optimism expected to persist despite a long to-do list and potential challenges.