Panel
Mini-Lateralism? Political and Economic Alignments in this Transformed Era | Asia Summit 2024
Milken InstituteDino Patti Djalal, Dato Onn Hafiz Bin Ghazi, Ford Hart, Kishore Mahbubani, Veerle Nouwens
- ASEAN is projected to surpass Japan in economic size by 2030, while the global geopolitical landscape is anticipated to undergo a significant storm over the next decade.
- The international order is transitioning from unipolar to multipolar, with the era of Western domination receding as 88% of the world's population now resides outside the West.
- China is expected to maintain a conservative domestic and foreign policy stance while exercising increased power, creating a distinct geopolitical reality for the Global South.
- The United States is predicted to shift from unilateral leadership to a reactive posture, addressing the rise of China and navigating internal challenges regarding partnerships, particularly with Japan, though it may remain more active in unilateral initiatives than China's Belt and Road Initiative.
- The Quad and AUKUS are forecast to gain relevance in the Pacific region, with countries in the Global South viewing minilaterals as essential for diplomatic alignment despite constitutional prohibitions on formal alliances.
- The RTS connecting Singapore and Johor is expected to be completed by the end of 2026, and the JSSEZ is anticipated to succeed, with progress noted prior to a formal agreement expected in December.
- Malaysia and potentially Saudi Arabia and Iran are expected to consider joining BRICS, driven by a desire for strategic autonomy and alignment with emerging powers.
- ASEAN's centrality is expected to face challenges from the rise of minilaterals, though deep-seated trust and established processes may allow its activities to continue regardless of US political fluctuations.
- The UN General Assembly and Security Council are predicted to continue struggling with effectiveness, particularly regarding the ability to make binding decisions and address global conflicts.
- A significant gap is expected to exist between public declaratory policy and actual behavior in Southeast Asia, particularly concerning strategic issues.
- Countries are expected to adopt a networking approach through various formats, including trilateral meetings and diverse groupings, to manage limited strategic bandwidth.
- The "Indo-Pacific" vision is characterized as inclusive of all actors except China, contrasting with a China vision that aims to include everyone, including China.
- The Indo-Pacific economic framework is expected to require substantial structural development to move beyond its current lack of tangible trade provisions.