Interview, Fireside Chat
Misinformation during disease outbreaks | Tara Kirk Sell (2020)
- The outlook anticipates a significant deterioration of misinformation and disinformation in the US, creating a risk of losing trust from approximately half the population, while prolonged stay-at-home orders lasting 12 to 18 months could cause excessive economic and health damage, potentially forcing a shift to a herd immunity strategy.
- Expectations include a surge in demand for biosecurity and pandemic control jobs, potentially multiplying several-fold over the next five to ten years, contingent upon sustained government funding and the EA community's ability to develop commercial applications for emerging technologies.
- The bio-risk community is predicted to gain greater political influence and decision-making power, particularly as global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) become a focal point, though historical precedents suggest a failure to learn from past mistakes may persist.
- Critical preparedness plans involve prioritizing vaccine development and healthcare capacity over indefinite lockdowns, alongside training large numbers of individuals in complex contact tracing protocols and normalizing surgical mask usage to drive PPE manufacturing growth.
- Modeling efforts are expected to be utilized as decision-support tools rather than predictors of the future, with future clarity on disease dynamics anticipated in coming weeks and months as serology testing expands and age distribution data is incorporated.
- Risks include high unemployment forcing individuals to take health risks to pay rent, the potential for hyperlocal disease spread causing inconsistent serology results, and the possibility that higher-than-expected infection rates with more asymptomatic cases could alter perceived disease severity.
- Communication strategies face challenges as public interest in lockdowns wanes due to a lack of local deaths, necessitating flexible approaches that balance voluntary behavior changes with public health mandates, while the US may struggle to emulate island-nation success models like South Korea.
- The stock market is expected to continue making widespread errors regarding pandemic trends, and while the immediate crisis is anticipated to stabilize, the focus will soon shift to preparing for the next pandemic or bioterrorism event.
- There is a noted risk of insufficient government stockpiling of PPE for future events, which may require incentives such as legalizing price gouging to encourage private sector stockpiling, while the EA community is positioned to help grow interest in these technologies through everyday use cases.