Conference Presentation, Keynote
Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
- Global mobile growth is projected to add one billion new online users over the next few years, driven exclusively by smartphones, with smartphone penetration expected to reach over 4 billion devices globally by 2020, representing nearly the entire global population's mobile usage.
- Cellular infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa is currently 70% covered and is transitioning to 3G with 4G anticipated soon, while smartphone penetration in South Africa has already reached approximately 50%.
- The global market for mobile hardware is expanding rapidly, with phone sales averaging 4 billion units every two years compared to 1.5 billion PC replacements every five years, and total smartphone and PC units on Earth are predicted to be two to three times higher by 2020.
- Market dynamics favor higher-margin hardware strategies, with Apple expanding share through expensive devices, while Android offers a credible entry-level experience starting at $30 to $40 against an average device price of $250.
- Economic barriers for startups have collapsed by several orders of magnitude while addressable markets have grown by one or two orders of magnitude, enabling rapid business formation and user acquisition.
- Hardware commoditization via an abundant mobile supply chain allows components to be sourced off-the-shelf, shifting primary innovation challenges to product vision and route-to-market strategies.
- The center of gravity for technology innovation has shifted from Seattle, Tokyo, or Eastbury to the San Francisco Bay Area and China, where local brands like Xiaomi and Meizu are displacing legacy competitors among younger demographics.
- Mobile commerce represents roughly 50% of traffic to U.S. e-commerce sites and approximately one-third of transaction value, while half of all online time in the USA is now spent within smartphone applications.
- Traditional web metrics and paradigms are destabilizing as Google's PageRank model breaks down and industry standards for terms like "installed app" or "Android" remain undefined for the next five years.
- Two dominant competing ecosystems, Apple and Android, now operate with distinct market shares, revenue splits, and customer bases varying by location and demographics.
- Facebook generated a $7.5 billion mobile advertising business from scratch over the last few years, while WhatsApp handles 20 billion daily messages, exceeding the global SMS system volume by 50%.
- Global LCD screen sales are projected to reach 5 billion square feet this year, equating to roughly one square foot per adult, while smartphone camera sales have surpassed the entire historical sales volume of the dedicated camera industry.
- A shift in communication behavior is evident as children move to social networks and photo messaging apps, relegating email to older generations, and over 800 billion photos were shared in 2014, a fraction of total photos taken.
- Software is increasingly defining new business models across all industries, causing technology to become invisible infrastructure similar to steel or railways, with companies like Airbnb, Uber, and Amazon leveraging mobile capabilities to disrupt travel and transportation sectors.
- Microsoft's share of computing device sales has declined from 80-90% to between 20% and 50%, while Amazon's net income trajectory is projected to increase despite its small current market share of the U.S. retail industry.