Mobilizing Capital at Scale: Financing Canada's Next Growth Chapter | Global Dialogues Toronto 2026

Core Diagnosis: Project Shortage, Not Capital Shortage

• Canada possesses over 100% in financial assets and massive external equity investments but lacks "financeable projects," a shortage approaching 100% according to Fitch Ratings.
• OECD data shows Canadian investment per worker fell to 85% of its 2014 level in 2023, while U.S. investment per worker rose 21% over the same period.
• In the data center sector, the U.S. has built over 5,000 facilities compared to Canada's ~300, including only five hyperscale sites exceeding 50 megawatts.

Regulatory and Approval Barriers

• Regulatory uncertainty acts as a "binary risk" that kills projects more effectively than technical or market uncertainties.
• Federal and provincial requirements, such as the need for ministerial approval for draws exceeding 5 megawatts of electricity, create friction in project execution.
• The TMX Group notes the energy sector's financing collapsed from nearly $20 billion annually a decade ago to less than $1 billion today, with the number of public energy companies dropping from 400 to under 200.
• Tim Wiggin (TD Securities) identifies regulatory uncertainty as the primary deterrent, as it cannot be mitigated by standard corporate risk management.

Capital Market and Ecosystem Challenges

• John McKenzie (TMX Group) warns that without the confidence that projects can be executed, the supporting ecosystem of small and mid-cap companies disappears, preventing the scaling of "blue chip" firms.
• Hugh Murray (Future Fund Australia) notes that while capital is mobile, Canadian assets carry a slightly higher cost of capital than Australian assets due to perceived risks.
• The "Major Projects Office" is viewed by panelists as a necessary but insufficient fix that focuses on marquee projects rather than the thousands of smaller projects required for broad growth.
• Proposed solutions include streamlining approval processes for projects under $25 million, not just billion-dollar infrastructure, to enable small companies to scale.

Fiscal Policy and Tax Reform

• John McKenzie suggests specific tax reforms, including changes to capital gains rules and capital cost allowances, to lower the cost of capital and incentivize risk-taking.
• Panelists advocate for a shift from "war bonds" to public equity participation, allowing everyday Canadians to co-invest and share in the success of national projects.
• Tim Wiggin emphasizes the need to clarify "rules of engagement" regarding fiscal policy and regulatory approvals to provide certainty for long-duration risk capital.

Market Access and Trade Strategy

• Jeremy Carter warns that diversifying away from the U.S. market is not a viable replacement strategy; 72% of Canadian exports went to the U.S. in 2025, and geography makes the U.S. a "dynamic economy" partner that cannot be easily replaced by the EU.
• The panel agrees that while diversification is "good hygiene," Canada must remain competitive with the U.S. to attract capital, leveraging the seamless nature of the border.
• Hugh Murray cautions against hitching Canada's growth wagon to the EU, citing similar structural issues like low productivity and a lack of innovation in both regions.

Forward-Looking Statements and Action Items

• Action (Start): Deregulate aggressively across thousands of small projects rather than focusing solely on marquee government-led initiatives.
• Action (Start): Governments must take political risks to implement structural changes, with the private sector committing capital in return.
• Action (Stop): Eliminate the "analysis paralysis" of creating long lists of projects without a clear prioritization or sequencing strategy.
• Action (Stop): Cease the creation of new regulatory barriers or taxes that act as obstacles to investment.
• Goal: The Prime Minister's target of catalyzing $1 trillion in investment over five years relies on fixing the "can we build it, can we sell it, and can we build an ecosystem" triad.
• Market Structure: Panelists identify the lack of a national electricity market and unresolved questions regarding private ownership of infrastructure assets as fundamental structural hurdles.
• Collaboration: A consensus exists that achieving the investment renaissance requires a unified front of policymakers, pension funds, banks, and sovereign wealth funds pulling in the same direction.