Conference Presentation, Panel
Modernizing Military Power | Global Conference 2026
- A $65 billion budget blueprint and a potential $1.2 trillion shipbuilding plan over 30 years aim to drive a hybrid manned-unmanned fleet, with new technology expected to double destroyer and carrier output while saving taxpayers hundreds of billions.
- Market consolidation is predicted within two to three years as programs shift from prototyping to production, causing capital to exit smaller players and leaving eight to ten "neo primes" with revenues reaching $200 billion.
- Defense technology investment is forecast to surge to $100 billion in 2026 following $49 billion in 2025, as sovereign states replicate the U.S. innovation model across domains from space to seas.
- A talent bottleneck involving 50 million skilled man-hours annually for submarine building and a 30-year manufacturing workforce gap necessitate 30-day rapid training cycles, automation, and the merging of welding and coding skills.
- Automation tools like "vibe coding" and AI are expected to increase productivity by 100 times for small teams, shifting the primary challenge from labor shortages to technology adoption and enabling small groups to build exploit kits at machine speed.
- Cybersecurity risks driven by AI-native threats and quantum computing vulnerabilities require immediate investment in post-quantum cryptography over the next 12 to 24 months, with consolidation expected in the cyber industry as vendors buy to survive.
- Contracting dynamics will shift toward enforcing commercial accountability with penalties for late delivery, aiming to prevent backlogs from stretching to 2040 and altering the risk calculus to favor new entrants over legacy primes.
- A shift to autonomous platforms for asymmetric conflict requires building vehicles under $5,000, while drone companies face high failure rates, necessitating an ecosystem that supports single-use problems rather than just dual-use vertical integration.
- National security concerns drive the expectation that warship modules will not be made abroad, with the Jones Act viewed as essential for revitalizing the shrinking U.S. commercial shipbuilding market and aging fleet.
- Cultural and regulatory changes, including "sovereign clouds" and decentralized edge-based compute to counter drone attacks on centralized data centers, are expected to reindustrialize the U.S. and create jobs in states like Alabama and Tennessee.
- While a "30 to 40 year" talent bottleneck exists across allied nations like Japan and Australia, allies are expected to seek adaptations of American capabilities while ultimately purchasing U.S. systems due to their proven superiority.
- Risks include the ecosystem reverting to the status quo with evaporating capital if new entrants fail to deliver, potential rebranding if policies change after 2028, and the "cruise ship" size of the Pentagon slowing the permeation of mandates into programs for several years.
- The "long tail" of defense needs, characterized by vast single-use problems, requires a new alignment of capital allocators and industry to support non-winners that traditional venture capital undervalues.
- Reindustrialization efforts may push "Silicon Valley wealth" back to the middle of the country, creating a "mountain" of opportunities for private companies as sovereign states replicate the U.S. innovation engine globally.