Interview, Fireside Chat
Moore's Law is Not Dead (Jim Keller) | AI Podcast Clips
- Computer performance is projected to double every two to three years, driven by a shrink factor of approximately 0.6 every two years and an anticipated 100x reduction in feature size within 10 to 15 years.
- Moore's Law is expected to persist beyond previous 10- to 15-year predictions, with no expectation of the industry hitting a wall or the need to worry about its demise for the remainder of the current outlook.
- The exponential increase in transistor counts, large enough to necessitate a shift in design and architectural thinking, will require abstraction layers to manage teams limited to 10 to 100 people due to constraints on human cognitive growth and team scaling.
- While hardware speed increases, algorithms with $n^2$ complexity are expected to run four times slower on systems with double the transistor capacity, creating a creative tension between software optimization and faster underlying hardware.
- The semiconductor industry is transitioning toward nanowire technologies, which is expected to drive a series of computational paradigm shifts from scalar to vector, matrix, and topological computation with every 10x generation.
- A 5G-enabled smart world with one-millisecond latency is expected to generate fully unpredictable computational transformations and new mathematics, including machine learning patterns that may not be completely mathematically describable.