Interview
Nadia Asparouhova — Tech elites, democracy, open source, & philanthropy
- Effective altruism is predicted to evolve into an "elite aristocratic philosophy" resembling future generations of wealthy families, with a trend among meritocratic elites to spend down fortunes within a lifetime or set decades to avoid inherited wealth pitfalls.
- Philanthropy among the top 10 percent of Americans is expected to be lower than that of the top 10 percent of Europeans, while the mental model for giving may shift from spouse-directed activities to "Gilded Age" style movement-building.
- New wealth accumulated over the last 10 years is anticipated to drive a return to patronage models similar to the Medici era, particularly within the tech-adjacent creator world, though "idea machines" may struggle due to uneven funding.
- Open source projects are expected to converge from a participatory "everyone" model toward a "lone genius" or "Wizard of Oz" maintenance structure, with many repositories likely becoming read-only by restricting interactions to code.
- DAOs are predicted to face governance failures with "super democratic" models, necessitating strong leaders at inception similar to early open source projects, though the resolution between protocol governance and human leadership remains uncertain.
- Community stability is expected to diverge based on structure: movements with large bases of "true believers" may persist without leaders, while charismatic founder-dependent communities will likely dissolve upon the leader's absence.
- The tech startup mindset focusing on top talent is forecast to remain distinct from the "faceless leaderless" crypto mindset, which is expected to fail in practice similar to historical hyper-democratic regimes.
- Effective altruism is projected to become a default option for vaguely dissatisfied individuals lacking specific cause areas, while the "new right" movement may expand influence beyond politics if it establishes shared values.
- The "tools for thought" community is expected to remain small due to funding volatility, though growth is possible if financial resources become available.
- The tech elite will likely continue bypassing mainstream media for individual creators and influencers, but the long-term viability of this decentralized approach versus codification into institutions remains an open question.
- Social media usage is expected to shift from public spaces to smaller private spaces like Chats and Substack as the public square becomes increasingly hostile.
- Elon Musk's influence on Twitter is predicted to be significant but its short-term outcome is unknown.
- The "tech elite" is expected to continue bypassing institutional media, yet whether their anti-institution mindset will lead to sustainable networks or individual behaviors becoming institutionalized is undetermined.
- "Gentleman scientist" or "gentleman scholar" models in science are predicted to be bygone or unlikely to resurge broadly, though some expansion in academic and creative freedom is possible.
- AI safety is expected to attract a specific "tribe" similar to the "climate doomer" phenomenon, emerging as a narrow view within a broader group as AI becomes more widespread.
- The trend of talented people addressing "existential catastrophes" is noted as a new phenomenon emerging strongly in the last five years, replacing older narratives like the Cold War.
- Formal religious institutions may not see massive funding surges from the new tech elite, but Christian values are expected to re-enter public society through the "new right" movement.
- People are expected to continue finding meaning and community through non-traditional structures, treating movements like climate change as functional religions without active church participation.
- Philanthropic institutions may experience "value drift" where boards diverge from original donor intent, and NGOs are expected to drift leftward toward simplified messages that pacify social values.
- The "conquest's second law" suggests NGOs will adopt simplified messages aligning with pacifying social values to generate positive feelings, leading to inevitable institutional drift.