Panel, Conference Presentation, Other
Navigating Investments from Cryptocurrencies to Blockchain
Milken InstituteSuna Said, Mike Novogratz, Charles Noyes, Bill Tai, Cameron Winklevoss, Tyler Winklevoss
- Market maturity driven by Bitcoin futures, options, and ETFs is expected to level price volatility and reduce ecosystem unsophistication over the coming years.
- The ICO market will likely yield a small number of revolutionary products emerging from a 95% to 99% failure rate of fundamentally worthless projects.
- Significant disruptive products with protocol-market fit are expected to launch in 2018, with real-world blockchain applications in sectors like file sharing and ride-sharing threatening established entities like Uber and Airbnb within two to three years.
- Ethereum's market capitalization is predicted to reach 10 times that of Bitcoin by 2020.
- Digital gold is expected to replace physical gold over a 5 to 15-year timeframe as younger generations adopt digital environments.
- Centralized institutions such as banks are projected to become obsolete gradually over the next 5 to 10 years as the technology matures and expands to developing regions.
- A global revolution in identity and data privacy is anticipated, threatening dominant data owners like Facebook and Google by enabling individuals to own and monetize their data.
- Market efficiency through the removal of rent-seeking fees is expected to serve as the ultimate killer app for blockchain technology.
- Spam email is projected to become practically non-existent if small cryptocurrency transaction costs make mass mailing economically unviable.
- The U.S. is expected to set the leading regulatory tone for the crypto industry, with other countries following suit over the next couple of years.
- Japan is predicted to have 260,000 Bitcoin-enabled retailers within eight weeks of a specific announcement.
- The average currency lifespan of 27 years suggests the U.S. dollar could face significant disruption in the future, presenting an early adoption opportunity.
- A few decentralized applications are expected to launch in the current year, including Funfair, moving beyond internal fixes to touch the outside world.
- The global market is expected to shift significantly within two to five years, creating real threats from decentralized alternatives to currently infallible companies.
- Regulatory crackdowns on fraud are expected to be severe while avoiding the destruction of the ecosystem's innovation potential.
- China is expected to crack down on decentralized systems temporarily to allow domestic companies to master the technology before rolling out a state-controlled version.
- The technology is expected to return human societal structure to a flexible, decentralized fabric similar to pre-industrial organization, allowing connections based on interest rather than corporate employment.
- Identity verification is expected to emerge as a killer app, facilitating privacy recovery and the ability to charge third parties for data access.