Webinar, Panel
North Korea: The Knowns and Unknowns Inside the Hermit Kingdom - Conference Call Series
Milken InstituteLaura Deal Lacey, James Crabtree, Anna Fifield, Prof. Robert Kelly, Yasuhide Nakayama, Dr. John Park, Bob Kelly
- Kim Jong-un is expected to continue avoiding public appearances, utilizing unannounced disappearances as a calculated tactic to reset narratives, particularly in the lead-up to September and the U.S. election cycle, while the regime maintains a public stance of zero official COVID-19 cases despite strict social distancing and border closures.
- Succession planning is viewed as lacking clarity, with Kim Yo Jung facing significant hurdles due to patriarchal norms and Kim Jong-un's children estimated to be around five years old, requiring 15 to 20 years to reach maturity; in the interim, the Workers' Party of Korea serves as a caretaker, and a potential vacuum could lead the military to install figurehead family members.
- North Korea's economic resilience relies heavily on sophisticated smuggling networks and trade with China, which accounts for approximately 90% of its commerce, though the pandemic poses a shock risk to these channels while the elite consolidate wealth through grey markets and side contracts despite widespread malnutrition among the general population.
- The regime anticipates that negotiations will only restart if the United States offers concessions commensurate with its nuclear weapons program, with a specific preference for a Donald Trump victory to bypass diplomatic protocols, while simultaneously preparing to leverage "new strategic weapon" rhetoric and low-level provocations to reset bargaining positions.
- China is expected to prioritize stability on its border, maintaining a functional but mistrustful channel with Pyongyang, reducing sanction enforcement during summits, and potentially offering assistance during the health crisis to prevent an outbreak that could destabilize the region.
- The leadership is prepared for scenarios where it must wait for external actors to approach regarding disarmament, utilizing the threat of instability and military action to maintain internal unity and justify the lack of unification, while monitoring the U.S. election and South Korean policy shifts to adapt strategies for regime survival.