Panel, Conference Presentation
Not Working: Solutions to America's Underemployment Crisis
Milken InstituteNicholas Kristof, Rev. Greg Boyle, Alan Krueger, Kris Stadelman, Cyrus Vance, Jr., Scott Walker, David Batts
- The U.S. labor force participation rate is projected to decline by 0.2 percentage points annually for the next 15 years due to the aging of the baby boom generation, following a peak of 67.3% around 2000 and a recent drop to 63%; this trend is attributed to 11.5% of prime-working-age men exiting the workforce, with one-third on disability insurance, and a plateau in prime-age women's participation since 2000.
- The economy is expected to face a labor shortage driven by a shrinking labor force, a diminishing middle class, and declining immigration, prompting a shift toward utilizing marginalized populations and motivating workforce investment, though a national minimum wage of $15 is viewed as potentially causing job losses based on current evidence.
- Rapid technological shifts and skill obsolescence will create labor market churn, disproportionately affecting older workers and those with outdated degrees, while global wage flattening and the gig economy may convert unemployment in high-cost hubs like Silicon Valley into poverty.
- Educational institutions are currently mismatched with new skill demands; while new programs in China targeting five-year-olds for coding may capture future jobs, U.S. community colleges and universities are criticized for not adapting rapidly enough to industrial-age limitations.
- States like Wisconsin have reported significant economic improvements, with unemployment dropping from 9.2% in January 2010 to 3.4% as of March, 100,000 job openings, and private sector wage growth of 7.5% year-over-year, alongside plans to triple funding for technical college partnerships with correctional facilities.
- Recidivism rates for prison releasees are high at 60% without education or support, leading to state commitments such as New York's $7.5 million prison education investment and West Virginia's focus on early intervention, with 20% of children born drug- and alcohol-free cited as a positive outcome metric.
- Local and state governments are assuming increased responsibility for early intervention and workforce support as federal engagement diminishes, exemplified by New York City's $450 million investment in five hubs for criminal justice-involved families and the expansion of youth apprenticeship programs in Wisconsin.
- Future labor strategies emphasize holistic approaches including trauma-informed care, substance abuse treatment, and longer benefit grace periods for people with disabilities, alongside voluntary work requirements for unemployment recipients and a reduction in weekly work hours to facilitate multiple job creation.
- Early childhood interventions targeting at-risk individuals in the first few years of life, along with evidence-based programs like career academies and pregnancy prevention initiatives, are identified as critical for breaking cycles of unemployment and crime, with the "end of the baby boom" viewed as an opportunity to realign training with demographic shifts.