Notes on China

Trip Context & Objectives

• The narrator spent two weeks visiting Beijing, Chengdu, Shenzhen (transcribed as "Amisham"), Chongqing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou to investigate the state of AI and the "unknown variable" of China's trajectory.
• The trip is framed as an initial inquiry rather than a definitive conclusion, with a commitment to share future findings.

Infrastructure & Urban Scale

• China faces an inverse economic dynamic to the US: the state subsidizes supply while restricting demand, contrasting with the US subsidizing demand while restricting supply.
• The narrator observed the "demolition for construction" mentality, citing the bulldozing of historic temples to build empty, endless skyscraper complexes.
• Cities feature unprecedented scale, with even "quaint" towns like Shenzhen (pop. 0.5M) hosting Buddhist temples of comical size funded entirely by unspecified donations.
• Chongqing is described as a cyberpunk, multi-level metropolis with over 20 million residents, featuring infinite layers of skyscrapers where fog often hides further structures.
• Rural areas show a pattern of small paddy farms surrounded by clusters of 5-10 story skyscrapers, which appeared "ghostly" with few visible inhabitants.
• Beijing's urban design is dominated by massive apartment blocks and wide boulevards (resembling James Scott's "Seeing Like a State"), likely intended for social control and military mobility.
• Most post-2000s construction is characterized as aesthetically unappealing concrete boxes, lacking the architectural quality of early 20th-century Western buildings built at similar GDP per capita levels.

Public Opinion & Society

• Public sentiment is fragmented: some claim the new generation is highly nationalistic, while others argue nationalists are a vocal 10% minority shouting down apolitical majorities on platforms like Weibo.
• The narrator noted a disconnect between Western narratives and local reality; a university graduate claimed the current regime is more liberal than a potential elected government would be.
• Foreigners are rare in most cities outside Shanghai; in Chengdu and Chongqing, locals frequently requested selfies.
• Language barriers were significant, with almost no English spoken outside Shanghai.
• Despite heavy surveillance and police presence, locals engaged in open criticism of the government and economy, including discussions of the CCP's past failures and hypothetical regime change.
• The "cult of personality" around Xi Jinping was not visibly present in public spaces (no billboards or frequent mentions), though historical figures like Mao appeared in museums and specific sites.
• Minorities relations were described as positive by individuals, who expressed genuine confusion about Western reports on Uyghur treatment.

Youth & Demographics

• High schoolers reported consuming 2-3 hours daily on TikTok, predominantly viewing content of "sexy girls."
• Young adults report high levels of stress and anxiety; even those with prestigious degrees from abroad are returning to China due to the competitive pressure.
• The "996" work culture (9 AM to 9 PM, 6 days a week) remains prevalent in top cities, forcing many to seek lower-paying, lower-pressure jobs in smaller cities.
• A demographic paradox exists where youth unemployment is high despite a collapsing population, explained by educated youth refusing low-skilled manual labor while high-skill jobs are scarce.
• The public intellectual ecosystem is virtually non-existent; there are no equivalents to Western figures like Jordan Peterson or Sam Harris, with content focused on practical matters rather than grand ideological takes.
• Effective Altruism and similar ideological frameworks are viewed as impractical; the prevailing mindset prioritizes basic economic development over idealistic programs like climate change or social safety nets.

Technology, AI & Investment

• Chinese AI labs, such as Moonshot AI, are capital-constrained; Moonshot raised $1B at a $3B valuation, whereas a single XAI data center in Memphis is estimated at $3-4B.
• The tech ecosystem remains shell-shocked from the 2021 regulatory crackdowns, leading to chronically low valuations and a lack of exit opportunities.
• Investment risks are high due to potential random IPO cancellations, poor state bank yields (2%), and underperforming stock markets.
• The VC landscape faces a "capital trap": keeping money in China offers poor returns, while moving it out is difficult.

Strategic Recommendations & Conclusions

• The narrator suggests a US foreign policy strategy of explicitly complimenting Chinese people, culture, and language to undermine the CCP's narrative that the West seeks to hold China back.
• Travel is deemed effective for sparking new questions and clearing mental "cache," but ineffective for assessing war risks or the precise state of the AI race, which requires direct access to elites via Zoom.
• The content suggests that self-selection for accessing content in China implies a high-quality, engaged audience there.
• The narrator emphasizes that the absence of time is not a constraint if one works on the right things, contrasting "advancing leaps" with "clearing the slog."