Conference Presentation, Panel
Of Tweets and Trade: U.S. Outlook
Milken InstituteGerard Baker, Christine BN Chin, Carlos Gutierrez, Gilbert Kaplan, Frank Luntz, Gil Kaplan, Steve Oaken, Ralph Simon
- Global trade liberalization is under significant challenge with a risk of reversal, while the U.S. administration plans to continue renegotiating agreements bilaterally for the foreseeable future to benefit domestic workers and manufacturers.
- Half of the surveyed audience predicts that negotiations with China will extend indefinitely with broad tariffs remaining in place, although officials note it is too early to assess final outcomes while expressing concern over potential U.S. withdrawal from agreements.
- Public sentiment in the U.S. has shifted such that a 2 to 1 majority now believes international trade causes job loss, driven by anger and fears regarding dependency on adversaries for essential defense weaponry.
- Automation, robotic technology, and artificial intelligence are predicted to create workforce challenges that may prove more severe and have longer-lasting ramifications than current trade disputes.
- Future U.S. strategy involves increasing trade programs with the ASEAN region and maintaining a permanent security and commercial presence in the Indo-Pacific, alongside a shift toward bilateral negotiations rather than multilateral frameworks.
- Officials express concern that a global rejection of multilateralism could cause the world to splinter, while emphasizing that the correct policy focus should be on worker retraining rather than just manufacturing.
- Educational initiatives aim to expand internationally, urging the preparation of younger generations to lead in a fundamentally different future, with an expectation that the American Dream and its associated benefits will continue for the next generation.