Interview, Podcast
Off the Clock #7: Getting on the Crazy Train with Chi Nguyen
- The speaker foresees a potential future role as a prominent public figure, such as Chancellor of Germany, and anticipates that values like cooperation may become the primary basis for holding power.
- There is an expectation that others will eventually join the speaker in working on the theory of evidential cooperation in large worlds, as it is currently unique to them, though funding for this work is expected to be dire over the next six months to a year due to institutional donor hesitation.
- While the speaker predicts that increased clarity regarding happiness and caring could lead to significant global improvements and a reduction in everyday cruelties, they fear that following logic to its conclusion could yield conclusions perceived as abhorrent or drive extremists toward terrorism.
- Regarding the upcoming US election, the speaker predicts potential polling declines and concerns about Joe Biden's age and acuity, raising the possibility of an imminent party replacement, while estimating a consequentialist voting probability between one in 40,000 and one in 10 million with a potential expected value in the tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars.
- The outlook includes a prediction that the loss of Joe Biden by a small margin would be significant for a UK district and that marginal seat flips would indicate the general election wave was less overstated than assumed.
- Projections for continental Europe suggest a higher prevalence of individuals who have optimized their lifestyle with fewer work hours, and the German economy may face less severe stagnation compared to other nations.
- The removal of government subsidies for the arts is predicted to decrease private donations and reduce the sector's attractiveness, while broader societal shifts could see some individuals engaging in self-enriching activities that negatively impact the world.
- The speaker notes a possibility that humanity has not self-annihilated due to evolutionary pressures, though they acknowledge the logical path they follow may lead to a "crazy place" that conflicts with societal norms.