Interview, Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation
Oil’s extended reign? Adapting to a new era in oil markets
- Global oil demand is forecast to grow at an average of 1 million barrels per day through the end of the decade, with a peak anticipated by 2034 followed by a plateau rather than an immediate decline.
- Goldman Sachs raised its 2030 oil demand forecast to 108.5 million barrels per day, noting that a 10% reduction in EV penetration could push the peak demand beyond 2040 with levels reaching 113 million barrels per day.
- India is projected to be the fastest-growing demand region for the next two decades, with robust passenger fleet expansion and rising appliance penetration offsetting electrification impacts.
- China's oil demand is expected to peak in the late 2020s, though it will contribute over 50% of the global increase in jet fuel demand through 2040, with internal combustion engine sales dropping to roughly 10% by 2030.
- Brent crude prices are predicted to trade between $75 and $90 per barrel as OPEC aligns supply with demand, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE positioned to fill shortfalls and cap prices if geopolitical disruptions occur.
- The oil market is expected to shift from inventory builds to a deficit in the summer season, driven by a supply picture that remains comfortable through 2026 but tightens significantly thereafter.
- Global spare oil production capacity stands at approximately 6% of total capacity, the highest in the top 20% of historical periods, though low investment has reduced reserve life by 25 years over the past decade.
- The refining system is structurally tight with no spare capacity, as nearly 4% of global capacity closed post-pandemic while demand exceeded pre-COVID levels; a deficit for diesel and jet is expected for the next three years.
- Road transportation demand is estimated to peak around 2032, resulting from a 60% projected increase in global GDP and cars by 2040 offsetting reduced oil intensity per vehicle.
- Oil price volatility may increase significantly in the long term due to low investment and US shale maturation, with long-run assumptions centering around $80 per barrel.
- US political scenarios involving a potential second Trump presidency are viewed as neutral to slightly bullish, with specific risks including tightened Iranian sanctions that could tighten markets if OPEC+ does not compensate.
- Macroeconomic factors such as rising interest rates and a stronger dollar are expected to weigh on prices, while fiscal easing or EV tax credit pullbacks could support demand.
- Gold is expected to offer superior hedging value against policy-driven inflation compared to oil, which performs best against demand-driven or supply-shock inflation.
- Refining is considered more prone to becoming stranded assets than crude production due to environmental pressures, with little global incentive to build new capacity in developed markets.
- Long-term uncertainty regarding supply visibility increases from 2027 onward due to a reliance on short-cycle projects and a lack of investment incentives.