Panel, Conference Presentation
Open for Business: Myanmar's Great Comeback
- The medium-term and long-term economic potential of Myanmar is described as nearly unparalleled by investors, with specific growth horizons outlined for the next nine years.
- Macroeconomic stability is a primary government objective, supported by financial sector deepening and a planned reduction in central bank deficit financing from 40% in the current financial year to 0% in subsequent years.
- Increased capital expenditure is identified as necessary following a long-term decline, with infrastructure development needs estimated at a minimum of $10 billion to $20 billion to be delivered via public-private partnerships.
- High economic growth is forecasted under various scenarios, including a potential GDP of $100 billion to $200 billion within roughly three years if the undocumented economy is formalized, or surpassing Taiwan's growth curve within five years under new policies.
- The banking sector is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate between 23% and 29%, with bank balance sheets expected to double within three to four years.
- A new company law is expected to be approved to enhance investor certainty, while a private sector bond market is slated for creation to be traded alongside equities on the Yangon Stock Exchange.
- Foreign insurance companies are anticipated to enter the market as buyers of government and private bonds, contributing to a finalization of the financial sector reform roadmap which includes the gradual removal of interest rate caps.
- Tourism is predicted to see exponential growth over the next five to ten years, potentially rising from 1 million visitors to levels comparable to Thailand or Cambodia.
- Employment goals aim for the creation of two million genuine new jobs, potentially supported by the establishment of 1,000 factories attracting labor through a favorable investment environment.
- Political expectations suggest the NLD could secure a second term in the 2020 elections due to limited opposition, with leadership anticipated to manage the economy directly.
- Highly concessional finance from the World Bank and ADB is expected to yield results in the current financial year, alongside potential diaspora engagement to aid national development.