Conference Presentation, Panel
Opportunities from an Aging Population: Longevity Strategies for 21st Century Business
- The UK population aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 12 million in 2016 to approximately 20 million by 2066 (26% of the total), with one in three current UK children likely reaching age 100, while the average age of marriage is expected to increase from 21 to 31 (reaching 36 in regions like Sweden) and divorce rates for those over 80 are set to rise.
- Work structures must adapt to life expectancies that could support 60-year careers, meaning mid-40s individuals will likely have more working years ahead than completed, and the proportion of workers over 70 is expected to double.
- Economic challenges include a potential demand shock from increased spending in old age coupled with a labor supply shock that could depress nominal wages, risking management complacency, while half of Americans aged 55 to 65 possess no savings and the remainder average only $100,000.
- UK healthcare costs are forecast to escalate from 37% to 50% of government spending due to an average illness duration of 8.5 years compared to 18 months in Sweden, creating an unsustainable burden that necessitates government intervention in flexible adult education and mandatory training levies for over-50s.
- Companies are predicted to achieve operational advantages by retaining older workers, who are five times less likely to leave, with specific sectors reporting satisfaction improvements (e.g., FSCs 77%, McDonald's 20%) and net promoter scores rising to 42 for Aviva against an industry average of 34.
- Organizational strategies will increasingly leverage mixed-generation teams to outperform same-age cohorts, integrate AI and robotics as cognitive prosthetics for physical tasks, and target "sandwich generation" workers with advertising flexibility for caregiving.
- Corporate recruitment and retention plans will shift toward offering non-financial pension benefits like learning time, rewarding age-friendly practices within ESG frameworks, and recognizing that businesses founded by middle-aged and older individuals will likely outnumber those started by younger cohorts in the US and UK.
- Career progression models are expected to flatten, with pay disparities narrowing over the next century to accommodate extended tenures, alongside a potential S-curve adoption of aging strategies and a shift in job security where communication and empathy skills protect professionals while AI replaces junior roles in coding and math.
- Government and institutional adaptation is critical to avoid massive societal costs, with projections indicating that firms failing to value human capital will diverge significantly from those that do, while Aviva's age leadership team aims to recruit one million older workers by 2022.