Interview
Our very long-term future & other topics most politicians won’t touch | Andrew Yang (2021)
- By the year 2500, humanity is expected to have reversed some climate change effects, restored environmental harmony, and enabled diverse living arrangements including communal and rural settings where work is voluntary and creative.
- Over the next century, two major challenges are predicted: climate change and income inequality exacerbated by AI and technological advancement, though progress in clean energy, benign AI, and meat substitutes is anticipated.
- Specific energy advancements include cheaper solar, battery storage, a geothermal renaissance, renewed fusion energy discussions, and the expansion of electric car charging infrastructure to previously unserved areas.
- Significant risks involve resource scarcity due to climate change and authoritarianism potentially leading to negative societal sentiments, while US democracy faces stress and a potential disappearance within several years.
- Political risks for the 2024 election include a possible Trump candidacy leading to political violence and protests, with fears that his election would implement specific threats; in a hypothetical rematch with Biden, the combined age of candidates is expected to be 158.
- Plans include running ballot initiative campaigns in over a dozen states to reform primary systems, which are designed to force politicians to appeal to a broader majority and encourage behavior similar to Senator Murkowski.
- Long-term automation is predicted to displace jobs at rates faster than historical norms, specifically citing 2 million phone operators potentially replaced by AI, alongside a likely winner-take-all market structure in industries like juices.
- Economic and tax systems will require rethinking to accommodate AI-driven work, with a hope for a future distributing abundance broadly, potentially involving a shift in decision-making to machine intelligence if it becomes generally capable.
- AI safety concerns highlight a fear that governments will lack understanding and urgency, necessitating trillions in investment for species-threatening risks, while the speaker doubts government efficacy without external pressure.
- Structural political reforms include implementing an 18-year term limit for Congress to lower average legislator age, though this carries the risk of empowering lobbyists who retain expertise longer than transient lawmakers.
- Foreign policy strategies involve increasing US foreign aid to 1.5% as a game-changer, returning to basic research funding, and granting million-dollar grants to young innovators, while noting a lack of arms reduction treaties between the US and China despite rising Chinese nationalism.
- Social and educational priorities include upgrading public schools, revisiting human challenge trials for medical research, and addressing the declining effectiveness of traditional polling due to growing public concern.
- Without urgent action on schools and other critical issues, there is a fear that the future will not align with desired outcomes, while the speaker anticipates the Forward Party making significant headway in the 2022 election cycle.