Conference Presentation, Panel
Overcoming the Political Divide
- Panel discussions are projected to allocate approximately 50% of time to diagnostics and the remaining 50% to solutions.
- Donald Trump may reach across the aisle during moments of political urgency if he prioritizes legislative action.
- Direct communication between representatives and constituents is predicted to render money in politics less relevant within 10 to 15 years, contingent on leaders demonstrating strong messaging.
- In the current cycle, a Democrat risks losing a primary for engaging with the opposing side, though no Democrat has been defeated so far for this reason.
- Democrats may be compelled to respond to presidential proposals on infrastructure, early childhood tax credits, or family medical leave rather than avoiding them.
- Governors in red states and Republican governors in blue states are expected to require bipartisan approaches to succeed given their specific district compositions.
- A national presidential approval rating of 42% is considered less relevant to congressional members representing districts that voted 60% for Trump.
- The next president may exhibit little ideological rigidity or policy detail, creating a revealed asymmetry with the Freedom Caucus over the coming months.
- The 2018 election cycle is anticipated to see the energy from women entering politics translate into actual engagement and representation.
- The success of the California open primary system in increasing competition requires a decade to determine.
- The number of women running for office is expected to rise significantly, with 11,000 candidates this cycle compared to 600 previously.
- Campaign persuasion skills are expected to translate directly into governing effectiveness.
- The political process may break out of a decade-long predictable grind if leaders adopt principles over specific seat counts like 51 or 60.
- Social media and direct conversations are expected to drive diversity and connection within Congress.
- Small legislative wins are anticipated to accumulate and eventually bring the public on board to overcome political polarization.
- The quality of political discourse is predicted to dictate future electoral outcomes as voters may reject candidates who do not improve it.
- A new energy is expected as important individuals step up in response to the belief that broader engagement is necessary.
- In California's top-two primary system, the 30% of Democrats could become the swing vote if Republicans face each other.