Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat, Interview
Part 1: Conversation With David Petraeus | Part 2: Conversation With Steven Mnuchin
- Globalization is accelerating and facing significant stress from populism, nativism, and protectionism; the Tony Blair Institute aims to counteract these trends through governance programs in approximately 14 countries and initiatives in about 30 nations to foster youth optimism, reduce extremism, and promote cultural coexistence.
- The rules-based international order is under its highest strain since the Cold War due to great power rivalries, primarily driven by China's unprecedented economic growth, which has slowed to just under 7% annually but remains dominant, while India is projected to surpass China in population and Russia seeks to reassemble Soviet influence.
- The Institute and U.S. officials view a strategic alliance between Israel and Arab states as a critical pathway to resolving the Palestinian question and stabilizing the Middle East, supported by hopes that Saudi reforms under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will succeed in transforming governance, economy, and social structures.
- U.S. economic policy targets sustained GDP growth of 3% or higher over the next few years through tax cuts and regulatory changes, with expectations of lower unemployment, no significant inflation, and strong consumer spending, while addressing trade flaws in China regarding technology transfers and joint ventures.
- Regarding North Korea, the U.S. maintains a maximum pressure campaign with sanctions set to remain until verified, irreversible denuclearization is achieved, though there is high expectation for a diplomatic meeting to resolve the issue.
- The U.S. identifies three major flaws in the Iran deal (term limits, ballistic missiles, and terrorism) with a waiver decision deadline of May 12th, expecting that non-renewal would reinstate secondary sanctions to limit Iran's financial transactions.
- U.S. trade objectives include finalizing a refined NAFTA agreement before the Mexico elections to ensure a level playing field, while steel tariffs are expected to be maintained without exemptions to protect domestic production, and a second phase of tax cuts for middle-income earners may be considered later in the year.
- Political risks include the potential for a U.S. government shutdown if budget deadlines in September are not met, alongside challenges from domestic hyper-partisanship and populism that may hinder the ability to capitalize on economic opportunities or effectively manage strategic rivalries.
- The European Union is expected to remain intact as a necessary collective bloc to exercise power against global giants, despite Brexit negotiations facing significant hurdles that could potentially prevent the departure, though the loss of the UK would still impact the transatlantic alliance.
- Western nations are urged to stand united against rising authoritarian models in China, Russia, Turkey, and Hungary by firmly but not provocatively pushing back while accommodating legitimate aspirations, with the survival of democracy and independent media viewed as contingent on the West's belief in its own values.