Conference Presentation, Panel
Populism: Passing Fad or New Political Era?
- Populism is predicted to persist in the near future, only subsiding once conventional politics reshapes alliances around the globalization divide (open vs. closed) rather than the traditional left/right spectrum, with the risk that failure to address reasonable concerns could trigger a "much more alarming" subsequent wave.
- A shift in UK politics is expected where the government pursues an "open Brexit" path driven by migration needs to sustain the economy, while the Labour Party faces potential comprehensive rejection if it refuses to accept the referendum outcome.
- Political risks for the UK include negative narratives surrounding a US-UK trade deal regarding GM foods and the NHS, while Latin America anticipates a prolonged period of harm from populism driven by a perceived leadership failure, with Mexico facing a potential presidential election focused on anti-American sentiment.
- In the US, support for military rule has risen to one in six overall, with a specific increase among young and affluent individuals from 6% to 35% over the last twenty years, raising concerns about a lack of understanding of liberal democracy among younger generations.
- Populist campaigns are expected to fail in the next election cycle if they rely on fabricated villains or impossible promises of immediate transformative results, such as doubling incomes or creating jobs overnight.
- Once elected, populists are predicted to eventually recognize governance complexity and respond by blaming political opponents, the free press, and independent judges to undermine institutions.
- Tax policy is forecasted to shift costs to the future in a non-transparent manner, creating long-term instability and a "terrible, antiquated" system that may take a long time to manifest as extremely painful consequences for competitiveness.
- A 50-year tension is anticipated regarding the balance between making individuals feel heard and preserving the space for international cooperation and expertise on complex issues like climate change and free trade.
- Future legislative attempts may be derailed by substantive policy details, such as statistics on health insurance loss, though the current environment makes bipartisan reform unlikely, leaving systems intact but not conducive to competitiveness.
- Institutions that have been too complacent for the last 20 to 30 years may be forced to mount a necessary defense of the international order and liberal democratic values.