Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
Power Shift: The Changing American Electorate
- Economic conditions and the middle class are expected to face continued pressure from globalization and rapid technological change over the coming decades, rendering traditional solutions from both major parties increasingly obsolete.
- Demographic shifts are projected to drive non-white voting populations toward values of tolerance and fairness, creating a persistent generational divide between those under and over 65 on issues such as climate change, immigration, and abortion.
- A significant optimism gap is anticipated to persist, with 78% of Republicans believing the best years are behind them compared to nearly two-thirds of Democrats who expect future gains.
- Future presidential elections are expected to remain closely contested at a 50-50 level, dependent on small state-level shifts, while Republicans face risks from self-satisfaction and the need to address social issues like abortion and immigration.
- Democrats are expected to face vulnerability regarding wage stagnation and wealth inequality despite their demographic advantages, while a national "grand bargain" on the budget is hindered by primary incentives that disincentivize compromise.
- Structural factors including term limits, the filibuster, and the primary election system are projected to prevent the emergence of centrist leaders and maintain gridlock, though redistricting reforms like California's "top two primary" may offer potential variables for improvement.
- Congressional term limits and the fear of primary challenges are expected to force politicians to avoid the political center, while media self-selection via smartphones will likely deepen societal division by limiting exposure to opposing viewpoints.
- The 2014 midterm elections are expected to feature an older and whiter electorate that makes it highly difficult for Republicans to lose House control, whereas a "truth-sayer" capable of addressing fiscal obligations for a senior population doubling in size may not emerge until 2016, 2020, or 2024.
- Political polarization may only decrease if individuals voluntarily consume media from opposing viewpoints, while young people are advised to focus on the public policy side of politics rather than fundraising to effect change.