Panel, Conference Presentation
Power Shifts: The Emergence of a Multipolar World
- The panel projects a shift toward a "multilayered" global landscape over the "next several years" characterized by reduced state capacity, internal fragmentation, and the rise of "emergent local or regional power" within complex, interconnected systems that are "not reversible" and "will not be linear."
- Conflicts are expected to "fester" and penetrate senior political leadership due to bureaucratic decision-making, with specific predictions that the Syrian crisis will "get much worse" without clear international agreements, potentially causing "dreadful ghastliness" and "floods of refugees" that threaten to "eat away at the fabric of the European Union."
- Stabilization efforts in Syria face the prediction that no "good options" currently exist, and any necessary intervention would require force levels "not seen... two generations, maybe even since the Second World War," whereas limited strikes risk "futility" rather than effective resolution.
- Russia's strategic approach is anticipated to evolve from the abandoned "Novorossiya" project to using eastern Ukraine and Crimea as a "lever of influence," with the conflict shifting from "military to the economic" where control depends on limiting corruption amid a "very difficult" budget situation caused by collapsing oil prices.
- The Russian government faces a "very difficult situation" with inflation expected at 12% while pension indexation may be limited to 4%, forcing a reliance on substituting "material goods with national pride," a strategy deemed "dangerous" for requiring the continuous "upping of the ante."
- Turkey faces "huge challenges" and a "real risk of sectarianization" causing "massive problems," while the US pivot to Asia creates a perceived risk of the US becoming "less willing to underpin European security" and treating Europe as a "second class issue."
- The nuclear deal with Iran is viewed as opening only a "very small window" for negotiation, complicated by increased division among regional actors, specifically Saudi concerns and Iranian self-confidence, within a region that is "more divided than ever."
- Long-term solutions for Syria and regional stability are expected to "take time" and avoid being "shock" measures, with a focus on "long-term" transitions like the one in Tunisia to prevent the spread of crisis consequences to North Africa through early, low-investment prevention.