Panel, Conference Presentation
Powering the Future: Energy Storage, Delivery, and a Modern Grid | Global Conference 2024
Milken InstituteGregory Zuckerman, Donnel Baird, Nardos Bekele-Thomas, Pedro Pizarro, Andrew Ponec, Karen Wayland
- Global industrial energy demand is projected to become the dominant source of electricity growth over the next two decades, with national load growth forecasts revised upward to 4.7% for the immediate future and estimates of 80% total growth by 2045 in California.
- To achieve net-zero goals by 2045, California must triple renewable capacity, deploy 15% of generation from non-commercial technologies, and accelerate transmission and distribution infrastructure development to four and ten times historical rates, respectively.
- California estimates a $370 billion investment requirement for bulk power, renewables, storage, and grid connections to reach net-zero, while consumer bills may fall 40% in real terms due to electric efficiency gains.
- Africa's Vision 2063 targets middle-income status for all countries by 2033, requiring a $1.3 trillion investment by 2040 to expand transmission from 263 to 1,200 kilowatts, provide annual power access to 90 million people, and source 63% of capacity via solar.
- Strategic efforts include transitioning U.S. industrial sites with over 50 gigawatts of thermal load to thermal batteries, leveraging cheap wind in Texas, and utilizing AI data center demand to force grid expansion, with a specific focus on the U.S. Midwest.
- Nuclear power is increasingly considered necessary for meeting 2045 net-zero targets, supported by Department of Energy funding for small modular reactors and early-stage technologies due to inflation and construction challenges.
- Renewable adoption is expected to accelerate alongside China and India's significant capacity additions, while battery costs are projected to decline as commodity prices normalize, potentially making thermal batteries more deployable globally than lithium-ion.
- Market rules in ISO, ERCOT, and PJM require refinement to compensate battery owners for ancillary services, and new building technologies like phase-change heat transfer are being tested to support grid needs.
- Private sector participation is encouraged in Africa to complement public investments in a single integrated electricity market connecting East, West, and South Power Poles, including the "Kit to Cairo" corridor.
- Future grid constraints may necessitate extending the operation of coal and gas units in states outside California, while residential fossil fuel use is projected to face significant regulatory and health-driven scrutiny.