Panel, Other
Priced out: Can high-density housing solve the affordability crisis? (KPCC Forum Series)
Milken InstituteDana Cuff, Ed DeMarco, Larry Gross, William K. Huang, Jeff Schaffer, Josie Huang, John Cohn, Kevin Clowden, Bill Davis, Josie Wong, Bill Huang
- The "Rescuing the California Dream" forum series is scheduled to conclude with a summary panel at the Milken Institute California Summit in December.
- Real income growth for families is projected to remain flat for a significant period, continuing a stagnation trend observed over the last 12 to 15 years.
- Home ownership rates have stabilized around 64% post-financial crisis and may dip slightly further or remain static as housing preferences evolve with aging populations.
- Without aggressive policy intervention, experts predict Los Angeles could become a "tale of two cities" separated by wealth within the next 50 years.
- The Ellis Act is expected to continue driving the displacement of tenants and the demolition of affordable units for luxury developments unless legislation is changed.
- A comprehensive declaration of a "state of emergency" on affordable housing is considered necessary to mobilize resources and reverse the current trajectory of policy fragmentation.
- The private market is not expected to develop affordable housing independently, necessitating requirements like inclusionary zoning to ensure production.
- Adaptive reuse of vacant commercial buildings and the implementation of accessory dwelling unit (ADU) ordinances are identified as viable strategies to meet supply goals, potentially adding 100,000 units if 20% of single-family lots are utilized.
- Micro-units ranging from 250 to 350 square feet are viewed as a promising but limited solution for entry-level renters, unsuitable for families.
- Transit-oriented development and mixed-use housing trends are expected to increase, though experts question if supply will be sufficient to resolve the crisis within 50 years.
- Value capture strategies along transit lines, including the potential use of Cap and Trade dollars and increased property taxes, are proposed to fund affordable housing projects.
- Preserving existing "naturally occurring affordable housing" through Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) and project-based vouchers is critical to preventing a net loss of units.
- Nonprofit developers are expected to continue producing the highest quality affordable housing due to mission-driven approaches, whereas for-profit developers without such mandates may exacerbate gentrification.
- If lower-income residents are forced to move away from transit corridors, public transit systems may be obligated to extend service to new locations, creating inefficiencies.
- High-density development is anticipated to return as a primary solution to housing shortages, though experts emphasize the need for equitable distribution across all neighborhoods to avoid NIMBY opposition.
- A "statewide fix" clarifying legal authority is needed to enable jurisdictions to implement inclusionary ordinances, building on successes seen in Pasadena and the potential for Metro's 35% affordability commitment on owned land.
- Federal agencies like the FHFA are expected to address national-level housing policy gaps over the next 50 years, potentially following models established after the Great Depression.
- Section 8 waiting lists, if opened, are projected to enroll 700,000 eligible individuals, highlighting the massive gap between current supply and unmet demand.
- Specific projects like the Wivenwood apartments in Boyle Heights pose risks of displacing long-term community residents if built as planned without adequate safeguards.
- California is expected to lead national efforts in developing housing solutions that other regions may adopt as their own crises intensify.
- Regulatory barriers, including zoning restrictions and the fear of strangers in backyards, remain significant obstacles to widespread second-unit construction and density.
- The trend of converting single-family homes into multi-unit dwellings is expected to face political resistance if more than 10% of lots in a neighborhood adopt such ordinances.
- Future housing patterns will likely shift as aging baby boomers downsize and urbanize, requiring walkable services and diverse housing types beyond the traditional single-family home.
- Market demand for residential units in downtown Los Angeles, driven by the adaptive reuse ordinance, is expected to continue as more buildings are converted for housing.
- Without a shift from the singular "American dream" of single-family homeownership to diverse housing options including apartments, societal outcomes may be hindered.
- Stagnant real incomes nationally, rather than just in California, are identified as a root cause of the affordability crisis requiring broad-based solutions.