Panel
Progress vs. Pessimism in the Middle East
- Predicts regional "disintegration" and map transformations over the next 20 years, including the fracturing of Iraq, Syria, Libya, and potentially Saudi Arabia.
- Forecasts that the next decade will be "very, very difficult" and "horrible," with positive outcomes from current societal changes expected only 20 years from now.
- Warns of immediate national security risks from a "large open green space" in Syria and Iraq facilitating Al-Qaeda operations and returning battle-hardened UK citizens.
- Notes that if the Muslim Brotherhood had not been removed from Egypt, the government trajectory would be "incompatible with the future," estimating the group could secure 20% of the vote in a free election.
- Projects a 60% probability of reaching a nuclear deal with Iran by the July 20th deadline, contingent on reducing the nuclear threat to "almost nil."
- Anticipates that without significant sanctions relief for human rights or terrorist support, any deal will not remove restrictions on groups like Hezbollah.
- Suggests that a nuclear program advancement or deal collapse could push Gulf states and Israel to cooperate more closely, potentially benefiting the regional map in the long term.
- Expects the Iranian threat to remain static in the coming year, while the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will remain important but cease to be the "heart of the problems" in the longer term.
- Predicts that Western influence in the Middle East will diminish as regional powers demand greater say in the global system.
- Identifies economic and political freedom as the primary drivers of the Arab Spring rather than sectarian tensions.
- Highlights Tunisia's success as a potential catalyst for Egypt, Syria, and Libya, while noting that 10 million Egyptians protested in late June or early July.
- Compares the current Middle East transition to South Africa's post-apartheid decline, where average life expectancy dropped from 60 years to 41 years despite political changes.
- States that the near-term future depends on handling the Iran and Syria situations, with long-term change expected to result in more mature and modern politics.
- Expresses skepticism that Congress will accept a deal unless it dramatically reduces the threat of a nuclear weapon, though positive educational partnerships with Arab institutions are anticipated.