Interview, Conference Presentation
Putin, the poisoning and Belarus: what's really going on?
- Events in Belarus are viewed as a potential template for regime instability in Russia, challenging calculations regarding the longevity of Vladimir Putin's power.
- The potential fall of Alexander Lukashenko is predicted to signal to the Russian public that dictatorial rulers are vulnerable to being defeated.
- While the exact timing and method of Lukashenko's departure remain unpredictable, the European Parliament expects to cease recognizing his presidency starting in November.
- The current strategy to neutralize Alexei Navalny is attributed to the regime's risk assessment that a legitimate opposition leader could unite protesters and portions of the elite.
- Civil society mobilization following the government's handling of the virus has catalyzed a shift from civic to political activism and a national awakening after years of Soviet-style rule.
- The scale and speed of recent unrest are described as having rattled Putin, implying a potential loss of control over the domestic situation.
- Regimes that lose legitimacy are forecast to face increasing unpredictability and difficulty in managing individual will.
- Putin is assessed as unsettled and fearful, leading to a future outlook where developments are increasingly dangerous and difficult to predict.