Conference Presentation, Panel, Fireside Chat
Real Estate in a Repriced World | Middle East & Africa Summit 2025
- Real estate and development in Egypt face ongoing demand driven by human needs and migration from Europe, with 47 million square meters of construction expected to reach completion by 2030 and 1,300 existing hotel rooms projected to expand to 3,000 within the next five years, alongside plans to build three new schools over the following three to four years.
- The UAE is anticipated to emerge as a primary destination for European migration seeking safety and rule of law, while Panama is expected to grow as a Latin American safe haven, creating strong markets for mixed-use, intergenerational housing that integrates amenities to minimize commuting.
- Developers in the region are expected to counter high construction costs and inflation by increasing brand value to command premiums of 20-25 percent, though they face significant foreign exchange risks, competition for materials from Gaza reconstruction, and talent drain to Gulf countries.
- Investors are expected to prioritize jurisdictions with stable governments, sound infrastructure, and efficient courts over contracts lasting 20 years, focusing on long-term commitments rather than "one-hit wonder" decisions, with the Middle East and UAE specifically favored for their pro-business stance and tax efficiency.
- The data center sector is characterized by volatile debt issuance rising from $20 billion to $120 billion, creating dangers for independent developers lacking understanding of unknown technology life expectancies or write-off periods ranging from 5 to 20 years.
- Environmental risks including storms, tidal inundation, and fires are expected to increasingly threaten communities, potentially causing the insurance industry to withdraw from certain areas and rendering uninsurable zones uninvestable, necessitating hurricane-resistant designs and self-reliant infrastructure.
- Hospitality investors are expected to seek stable environments free of oversupply, scrutinizing demographics, airlift, and legislation, while facing margin pressure from wage and utility inflation and anticipating distress in the U.S. next year due to post-pandemic underwriting and capital expenditure cuts.
- Future market growth is expected to concentrate in luxury and high-end commercial segments, whereas the lower to mid-market faces compression from rising labor, material, and insurance costs, potentially driving the conversion of low-to-mid-market hotels into affordable housing due to zoning restrictions.
- Big hotel brands driven by share prices are expected to struggle with supply growth due to product dilution and loyalty scheme saturation, prompting a shift where owners increasingly self-manage properties or utilize independent management companies rather than relying on traditional brands.
- The Cayman Islands are expected to see a surge in demand for physical office space to satisfy economic substance requirements, reaching 1.6 million square feet of Class A space at approximately $55 per square foot, competing against Miami's $65 rate.
- Investors are expected to mitigate weather-related risks through captive insurance structures and heavy investment in weather study reports, while markets failing to plan infrastructure such as rail and airport airlift 20 years ahead are predicted to fall behind leaders like Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
- Consumer confidence in the mid-market is expected to soften due to tax policy worries and economic slowdown, yet opportunities are anticipated in distressed U.S. assets like senior housing and retail space where redevelopment is feasible, alongside a continued trend toward experiences and amenities that cannot be replicated digitally.