Panel
Redefining Business as Usual: Finding Opportunity in Disruption
- Airline traffic volume is projected to reach 15% of pre-crisis levels by the time the economy fully opens, with operations expected to hit approximately 50% capacity by Labor Day.
- A full return to normal industry conditions is forecasted over a three-year recovery period, with the aviation sector reaching 80% of previous levels within two years, contingent on widespread vaccine availability and therapeutic advances.
- The U.S. passenger market is expected to see meaningful growth over the next 12 months as herd immunity develops, whereas the international market is anticipated to lag, taking longer to achieve 75% to 80% recovery.
- Delta Air Lines plans to maintain a 60% load factor cap through the end of September to ensure social distancing, with boarding processes continuing from back to front and customer net promoter scores expected to remain approximately 15 points above previous levels.
- Business travel is predicted to return gradually after Labor Day, initially driven by leisure travelers re-introducing "road warrior" patterns, while corporations wait for conventions to reopen and may shift toward higher-quality, less frequent travel rather than inefficient overnight trips.
- Airline infrastructure improvements, including the rebuild of LAX Terminals 2 and 3, may be accelerated by two years using low-traffic periods, and aircraft scheduled for retirement within the next five years will be retired immediately to enhance fuel efficiency.
- The broader economy is expected to follow a U-shaped or "Nike swoosh" trajectory over the next three years rather than a sharp V-shape or an L-shape, with aviation and sports industries maintaining commitments to safety, health, and environmental resilience.
- Live entertainment, including concerts and Broadway, is expected to approach pre-crisis operations in under two years, while sports stadiums will initially operate without spectators but eventually see modest fan returns as testing and medical confidence improve.
- Specific sporting events such as the 2021 Super Bowl in Tampa Bay and the Tokyo Olympics in summer 2021 are expected to proceed, potentially with reduced or controlled fan bases to manage health risks effectively.
- University systems expect a return to full campus populations within a few years, though academic conference travel will decline significantly due to effective video conferencing and a substantial number of employees will continue working remotely.
- The University of California is projected to move away from SAT admissions decisions due to income correlation and re-examine the use of race, ethnicity, and gender in public benefits, while the H-1B visa suspension is viewed as detrimental to U.S. innovation and the DACA program remains active.
- Long-term industry shifts include stadium architectural changes for cleaning protocols, a rise in "grab-and-go" concession options, and a continued period of athlete demonstrations regarding social justice issues.