Conference Presentation, Panel
Redrawing the World Energy Map
Milken InstituteGreg Zuckerman, David Collier, Tom Fanning, Mary Landrieu, Joe Naylor, T. Boone Pickens, Terry Outler, Sharon Smolian
- Barnett shale recovery rates are projected to rise beyond the current 30–40% range.
- Marcellus shale reservoir production is predicted to sustain for over a hundred years.
- U.S. oil production is forecast to reach 11–12 million barrels per day, potentially exceeding all other nations.
- The oil and gas sector is anticipated to contribute over $1 trillion annually, representing 8% of U.S. GDP.
- Technological advances are expected to reduce costs and expand the resource base in the Canadian oil and gas sector, which remains in very early stages.
- Deep water drilling capabilities are planned to extend to 12,000 feet of water depth, with future plans for another 20,000 feet below current levels.
- Developing natural gas and expanding the energy portfolio is projected to add 2% to 4% to U.S. GDP.
- A comprehensive North American energy security plan is expected to generate 3 million jobs.
- National debt reduction is forecast to occur by 2025, with an anticipated reduction of the national deficit by $1.6 trillion.
- The United States is expected to achieve energy security and become a net exporter by 2020.
- The U.S. is predicted to become the globe's largest energy producer between 2030 and 2035.
- A new nuclear plant under construction by Southern Company is expected to be cleaner than a natural gas plant upon completion.
- Exporting natural gas is anticipated to cause slight price increases and increased volatility, though economic benefits are expected to outweigh these effects.
- Approximately $95 billion in new manufacturing chemical facility investments on the Gulf Coast are expected over the next four to five years.
- Natural gas is positioned as a cleaner bridge to a future where other technologies develop.
- Renewables are expected to increase their energy mix share from about 1% to 3% by 2035, while fossil fuels remain at 80%.
- Global energy demand is forecast to increase by 40% over the next 20 years driven by population growth and middle-class expansion.
- The global population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2035.
- The middle-class population is expected to grow from 2.3 billion to over 5 billion.
- Converting eight million heavy-duty trucks to natural gas is expected to reduce OPEC dependence by 75%.
- Significant LNG exports from the Gulf Coast are predicted to begin in at least 2 years.
- Significant LNG exports from subsequent facilities are expected to take several years to become operational.
- The break-even price for unsubsidized biofuels is expected to be $50 to $100 per barrel higher than current market prices.
- The cost to meet Alberta's emissions targets via offsets and tax-free contributions is expected to drop to about $16 per ton.
- The cost per barrel for Alberta's emissions compliance is expected to range from $0.02 to $0.10 per barrel.