Interview
Rendering bioweapons obsolete and ending the new nuclear arms race | Andy Weber
- Predicts biological weapons could become more accessible to bad actors with fatality rates of 30% to 50%, potentially making the current pandemic the last if prevention is prioritized.
- Anticipates adversaries, including China and North Korea, may view biological weapons as more viable than nuclear options due to covert delivery, deniability, and potential for increased interest following the success of SARS-CoV-2.
- Foresees a 50% probability that COVID-19 originated from a laboratory leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, citing historical gain-of-function research and a lack of transparency in Chinese records.
- Outlines a plan for the US to resolve the global biological threat over approximately one decade through an annual investment of $20 billion across the Defense Department and Department of Health and Human Services.
- Projects that a sustained $10 billion US investment could save roughly one trillion dollars in economic activity by preventing pandemic shutdowns, noting current biodefense spending is approximately $1 billion annually.
- Envisions a multi-use biodefense industrial base capable of shifting from routine production to pandemic response, supported by in-home testing and sequencing technologies for instant viral detection and public health "weather maps."
- Claims mRNA platform technologies enable countermeasure development against novel pathogens within days to a month, and against existing variants within months, potentially removing the biological weapons class from effective use.
- Describes the current Defense Department strategy of big power competition as a pretext for funding Cold War platforms like aircraft carriers and F-35s, while predicting no major land war with China.
- Warns that a massive nuclear exchange would cause a near species-ending nuclear winter with years of cooling and starvation, while noting the high probability that a former president could have unilaterally launched nuclear weapons without Defense Secretary approval.
- Recommends policy shifts including a five-year extension of the New START treaty until 2026, a sole purpose policy for nuclear weapons, and the immediate termination of the Long Range Standoff Weapon research program.
- Suggests regulatory reciprocity between the US, UK, and European authorities for vaccine approval, while characterizing Operation Warp Speed as an extraordinary achievement that delivered vaccines in record time.
- Identifies the 21st century as the "century of biology," with bioengineering poised to become the largest economic growth sector, and notes the Council on Strategic Risks will seek fellowship candidates in March and the Emerging Leaders in Biosecurity program is in its 10th year.