Conference Presentation, Panel
Revenge of the Superbugs: How Can We Outsmart Killer Microbes?
Milken InstituteDr. Frieden, Dr. Brilliant, Ronnie, Beth, Walt Ornstein, Dr. Cole, Dr. Price, Larry, Dr. Denise Cardo, Dr. Alvarez, Michael Milken, President Gorbachev
- Global transmission risks allow single outbreaks of measles to trigger multiple international incidents, while Ebola is expected to be stopped through traditional public health partnerships.
- Pandemic preparedness budgets require prioritization over other spending, as a cut could be catastrophic despite the risk being a low-probability, very high-impact event.
- A viable vaccine for a new pandemic virus requires weeks for human trials followed by months for clearance, manufacturing, and distribution.
- Panic, including runs on banks and stores, is predicted to occur immediately upon the announcement of a pandemic, which could spread exponentially to reach a billion sick people in 30 steps within three months.
- Government-led detection and response are essential, with global pathogen detection times improving from six months to three weeks, and advanced molecular sequencing capable of processing genomes in two to three hours.
- Digital disease detection and participatory surveillance systems are expanding, aiming to establish public health "911s" in over 30 countries within the next few years to protect 4 billion people.
- US vaccination policy faces stagnation due to parental worries, though the Vaccines for Children program is projected to continue preventing hundreds of millions of illnesses and millions of hospitalizations.
- Global health security core indicators target 90% measles vaccination coverage and the ability to detect the five deadliest pathogens in 80% of districts.
- Hand washing compliance by doctors remains abysmal at 20% in some reports, with medical education expected to institutionalize the practice from the first year of school through career practice.
- The healthcare industry faces a depleted antibiotic pipeline, with antibiotic use totaling 7.7 million pounds in US hospitals and 30 million pounds in food animal production annually.
- Antibiotic stewardship programs are projected to reduce C. diff and CRE deaths by 50% in five years if resources are secured in the 2015 budget.
- Thirty states have mandated public reporting of hospital antibiotic use, which will be accessible via the CMS website.
- Terror medicine programs in Israel improved hospitalization access to over 90% within the first hour over a five-year period, compared to a baseline of few hospitalizations within minutes.
- Climate change has expanded the Anopheles mosquito range to affect a billion more people than before, and Chikungunya is projected to potentially become the new West Nile virus in the US.
- Human-animal contact has increased significantly with 800 million wild animals consumed in Africa last year, while the scientific community discovers one new organism annually.
- China is cited as a model of transparency regarding H7N9, posting viral genomes within hours, while the WHO is scheduled to present a restructuring report at the annual World Health Assembly in two weeks.
- New point-of-care diagnostics are expected to cost half a dollar or 25 cents each, facilitating efforts to eradicate pandemics within a lifetime through early detection.
- Rapid genome sequencing is anticipated to help rescue existing antibiotics by enabling more specific treatments for infections, potentially preserving them better than current practices.
- Michigan pediatricians reported that 85% feel unprepared for a bioterrorism event, and media sensationalism poses a danger by creating memes and crying fire in crowded conditions.
- Society is expected to become more resilient to superbugs through a collective role involving patients, philanthropy, industry, and policymakers, with the goal of preserving antibiotics for the future.