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Conference Presentation, Fireside Chat

Revolution of Hope: The Life, Faith and Dreams of a Mexican President

Event Overview & Context

  • The event was an invitation-only gathering at the Milken Institute, hosted by Chairman Mike Milken to introduce former Mexican President Vicente Fox.
  • Registration for the Institute's upcoming global conference officially closes the day of the event.
  • The dialogue focuses on the strategic, economic, and cultural partnership between the United States and Mexico, framed by Fox's transition from a Coca-Cola executive to the President of Mexico.

Demographic & Economic Data Points

  • Population Growth: Mexico's population grew from 50 million in 1970 to 105 million today, an increase of 55 million, which outpaces the 50 million total increase of Western Europe over the same period.
  • Future Projections: Mexico's population is projected to peak at 135 million by 2035 before beginning to decline; doubling the population will not occur again.
  • Migration Impact: Over 50% of children born in California in 2000 had parents or grandparents born in Latin America; the top surnames in Los Angeles County home buyers are now Hispanic (e.g., Garcia, Hernandez, Lopez) rather than traditional Anglo names.
  • Economic Scale: The combined economy of the United States and Mexico ranks as the second-largest in the world.
  • Trade Volume: Bilateral trade under NAFTA exceeds $500 billion annually, surpassing the combined trade of all other Latin American countries.
  • Mexico's Reserves: Mexico doubled its foreign exchange reserves to $85 billion, achieving a reserve-to-debt ratio of 2:1 by prepaying all debt commitments for 2007–2010.
  • Stock Market Performance: Under Fox's presidency, the Mexican stock market increased 2.5-fold in U.S. dollars and 3.5-fold in local pesos.
  • Inflation Control: Inflation in Mexico was reduced from 11% to 4% during Fox's administration.
  • Workforce Needs: Prior to 2001, the U.S. economy required 500,000 new workers annually to sustain growth and another 500,000 to support retirement plan solvency.

Policy, Governance, & Political Decisions

  • 2000 Election: Vicente Fox was elected in March 2000, breaking the 70-year dominance of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
  • Rancho San Cristobal Summit: In 2001, Fox and President Bush committed at a summit in Fox's home state to pursue comprehensive immigration reform.
  • Post-9/11 Shift: Following the September 11 attacks, the immigration reform proposal presented to Congress was effectively frozen as the U.S. priority shifted to counter-terrorism.
  • Iraq War Stance: Fox and Mexico declined to join the U.S. invasion of Iraq, choosing instead to uphold multilateral strategies and UN mandates.
  • Drug War Strategy: Fox criticizes the "force vs. force" strategy currently employed by President Felipe Calderón against cartels, citing precedents where similar heavy-handed approaches led to low approval ratings.
  • Central Fox Initiative: Fox established the Vicente Fox Center as a think tank rather than a traditional museum, focusing on four pillars: democracy/freedom, market economy with responsibility, social policies (education/health), and gender equity.
  • Constitutional Reform: Fox led the effort to change Article 82 of the Mexican Constitution to allow him to run for president despite being born to a Spanish mother, a rule that previously barred children of foreign-born parents.

Key Discourse & Disagreements

  • Immigration Philosophy: Fox advocates for "building bridges instead of walls," arguing that isolationist policies are counterproductive and that migrants contribute significantly to the U.S. economy.
  • Economic Crisis Response: Fox expresses skepticism regarding U.S. "counter-cycle" stimulus strategies that increase deficits without prior reserve accumulation, warning of future inflation or interest rate spikes.
  • Leadership Style: Fox contrasts the "Machiavellian" approach of imposing fear (citing Bush and Uribe) with a "sanctified" approach of gaining respect through love and dialogue.
  • NAFTA Sentiment: Fox urges the U.S. to deepen and enrich NAFTA, drawing parallels to the European Union's model of solidarity and integration to counterbalance rising Asian powers.
  • Drug Consumption: Fox notes that increased security on the border has shifted drug consumption and cartel violence within Mexico, making the country a major drug market itself.

Forward-Looking Statements & Predictions

  • Global Economic Ranking: Citing Goldman Sachs, Fox predicts that by 2040, the U.S. will drop to second place globally, with China first, India third, and Mexico rising to fifth.
  • Financial Prudence: Fox predicts that global consumption habits must shift toward saving and prudence to "digest" the excesses of the past decade before a future economic "banquet."
  • Cartel Resolution: Fox predicts the Mexican government will eventually win the war on cartels but warns the cost in time and violence remains a significant variable.
  • Latin American Leadership: Fox identifies Mexico, Brazil, and Chile as the key drivers for Latin America's success in the 21st century, aiming to reverse the region's authoritarian history.
  • Central Fox Activities: Upcoming events for the Vicente Fox Center include galas featuring art auctions, indigenous cultural performances (Guelaguetza), and culinary exhibitions from Oaxaca.

Q&A Highlights

  • Environmental Leadership: Fox advises the U.S. to adopt a compassionate, listening leadership style that respects global institutions rather than relying on military power.
  • Security Concerns: Fox argues that the perception of danger in Mexico is exacerbated by media bias (e.g., Lou Dobbs) and warns that drug prohibition policies historically fuel violence.
  • Crisis Leadership: Fox recounts that his grandfather immigrated to Mexico from Cincinnati with no money, using the "American Dream" framework to build a life in Guanajuato.
  • Personal History: Fox details his career path from truck driver to Coca-Cola executive and finally President, noting that 18 former Coca-Cola executives have become heads of state, primarily in Africa.
  • Advice on Courage: Fox asserts that "heroic aspirations" act as hooks to drive action and that leaders must set new objectives before completing current ones to avoid complacency.