Panel, Conference Presentation
Rewriting the Rules of Global Conservation | Global Conference 2024
Milken InstituteJustin Worland, Eron Bloomgarden, Iván Duque Márquez, Jennifer Morris, Wendy Schmidt
- Global carbon neutrality is projected to require immediate nature-positive solutions, with deforestation and negative land use anticipated to become the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter; without stopping deforestation within the next five years, the Amazon Basin risks ceasing to function as a carbon sink and becoming a net emitter.
- Meeting the global agreement to protect 30% of the world's territory by 2030, a target Colombia achieved in 2022, requires massive capital mobilization through biodiversity credits, guarantees, and smart lending, with Colombia expecting to match the Bezos Earth Fund's $300 million commitment with an additional $300 million from its own government.
- Nature-based solutions are expected to represent 30% of the answer to climate change, yet achieving net zero by 2050 without changing food production or protecting land and oceans will render Paris Agreement goals unachievable; losing one million species in the next decade is projected to impact local communities, indigenous populations, businesses, and the global economy, over which half of the world's GDP is directly dependent.
- Carbon pricing is anticipated to approach a trillion-dollar market, with regulated cap-and-trade or tax programs considered the optimal approach where political will exists to unlock billions in auction revenues for clean investments, while carbon markets must maintain high integrity to ensure funds reach communities for schools and clinics.
- Investment needs are severe, with Africa requiring $2.8 trillion to meet 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 60% of low-income countries facing debt default or near-default status; debt conversion deals have already unlocked $1.2 billion in four countries and an additional $400 million for nations like Belize and Seychelles.
- Specific regional actions include Colombia passing a unanimous climate action bill to establish a climate cabinet, expecting a 7% greenium on green bonds, and aiming to be a leading market for carbon solutions after Brazil, alongside the launch of the planet's largest maritime protected area involving four countries in 2021.
- Technology and data collection, such as low-cost sensors and open information sharing, are expected to make conservation measurable and accelerate system understanding, while philanthropy will act as early risk capital for system-transforming technologies, such as the $5,000 investment in sail drones that led to $95 million in venture funding.
- Major threats to the Amazon include cattle ranching and soy production, with the region having already lost an area equivalent to Texas and California over the last four decades; however, initiatives like 100% transparency for 24 million cows in Brazil's Pará state and payment for ecosystem services for indigenous communities aim to shift incentives toward sustainable production.
- The US Inflation Reduction Act is expected to serve as a "plan B" for climate action, while companies are urged to commit to net zero through transition plans, though commitments may be abandoned due to leadership changes over three, five, 10, or 20-year horizons.
- Conservation efforts are expected to shift from viewing protection as distant to local community-driven initiatives, with indigenous communities, who steward 80% of global biodiversity, requiring land titles, legal protections, and direct payments to effectively serve as forest guards.
- Market mechanisms are projected to evolve, with the US mitigation banking market serving as a model for integrating nature and biodiversity into global south markets, and existing markets shifting from a sole focus on technology-based removals to robust nature valuation.
- Economic risks include the potential loss of mineral resources through mining the ocean rather than recovering already mined materials, the alarming rate of soil erosion taking a million years to recreate naturally, and a California ballot issue in November that may overturn 2022 laws creating setbacks for oil and gas operations.