Fireside Chat, Interview
Richard A. Clarke, National Security Expert and Author
- Hackers are projected to evolve into military-style entities targeting critical infrastructure like power grids and physical objects, a shift the authors confirm occurred within the decade following their initial publication.
- A massive Russian attack akin to "NotPetya" is predicted to infiltrate VPNs of American and European firms, wiping out global software networks.
- Electric power grids, natural gas pipelines, and military weapons systems are currently identified as vulnerable to cyber attacks, with this insecurity confirmed by the Defense Department and Government Accountability Office.
- "Cyber illiterate threats" are expected to become more accessible, potentially causing the failure of military logistics, supply chains, and civilian infrastructure during actual conflict.
- A reasonable probability exists for military conflict to be triggered by cyber incidents, driven by the perception of cyberspace as a low-casualty zone.
- Cyber conflicts are predicted to escalate to kinetic warfare, where decision-makers may order physical bombardment rather than continuing reciprocal cyber strikes.
- Russian actors are forecast to repeat 2016 election tactics in 2020 with new, unanalyzed methods, including information operations targeting Green Party voters in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan to suppress victory margins.
- Targeted suppression of African-American turnout in Philadelphia neighborhoods is predicted, potentially resulting in a 16% drop in voting against the Democratic Party.
- Voter databases in 38 states may be penetrated without knowledge, enabling attackers to alter polling locations, purge voter rolls, or create bottlenecks to reduce vote counts.
- Voting machines are described as easily penetrable by unskilled actors, with the lack of source code access and paper backups in some states preventing result auditing.
- An attack on the 2020 election is predicted to utilize "fake news generators" to cast doubt on the outcome and undermine public faith in U.S. democracy.
- Defensive technologies, including endpoint detection, machine learning, segmentation, and multi-factor identity management, are expected to secure networks for well-funded organizations, contrasting with the unreported or contained intrusions at companies like Marriott and Equifax.
- Superior defensive capabilities are anticipated if venture capital, private equity, and government research provide adequate funding, aiming to prevent a period of "critical instability."
- The current state of critical instability between nation states carries the risk of accidental cyber war escalation into kinetic attacks on critical systems.