Robert Draper, Writer at Large for "The New York Times Magazine"

Book Objective & Rationale

• Robert Draper's book To Start a War addresses the "legacy-defining mystery" of why President George W. Bush initiated the Iraq War 18 months after 9/11, despite no operational link between Saddam Hussein and the attacks.
• Draper identifies three core unanswered questions: whether intelligence guided the decision, if better intelligence would have altered the outcome, and if personal persuasion could have stopped the President.
• The author argues the decision created a "credibility chasm" in American trust regarding government integrity and influenced the subsequent presidencies of Obama and Trump.

Paul Wolfowitz's Central Role

• Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz is identified as the primary architect who provided the intellectual and emotional momentum for attacking Iraq.
• On the evening of September 11, 2001, Wolfowitz directed the Defense Intelligence Agency to compile all data on Saddam Hussein's ties to terrorist groups.
• Within four days of the attacks, Wolfowitz placed the concept of attacking Saddam Hussein on the President's radar, establishing the issue long before public consensus formed.
• Draper refutes the narrative that the Bush administration intended invasion from the start, noting that pre-9/11 policy under Bush mirrored the containment strategy of the Clinton era.

The 9/11 Catalyst

• The 9/11 attacks radicalized President Bush's foreign policy outlook, shifting his focus from domestic priorities (tax cuts, immigration, education) to a hyper-awareness of future threats.
• Bush's motivation stemmed not from specific actions by Saddam, but from a sense of failure regarding the lack of preparedness for the attacks.
• Prior to 9/11, Bush had expressed to a CIA analyst that Saddam would eventually face consequences but did not intend to be the actor executing that outcome.

The "Slam Dunk" Intelligence Meeting (Dec 21, 2002)

• Contrary to popular interpretation, President Bush was not swayed by CIA Director George Tenet's "slam dunk" comment; Bush was already committed to the war.
• Notes from the meeting reveal Bush's primary concern was that the intelligence presented was insufficient to convince American families to support sending soldiers to war.
• Bush requested assistance from Madison Avenue and improved legal counsel to better "sell" the war, indicating the CIA's role shifted to becoming a salesforce rather than just an intelligence provider.
• This pressure to bolster the case contributed to the metastasis of flawed intelligence into Colin Powell's U.N. presentation, which contained significant falsehoods regarding illicit WMD programs.

Colin Powell's Dilemma & Impact

• Colin Powell uniquely warned President Bush of the catastrophic consequences of invasion, coining the "Pottery Barn" rule: "You break it, you own it."
• Draper argues Powell could not resign due to the "axiomatic" military culture of deference to the chain of command.
• A counterfactual analysis suggests that if Powell had resigned, it would have triggered a cascade effect: his senior staff would have resigned, U.K. Foreign Secretary Jack Straw would have resigned, and the UK would have withdrawn its coalition support.
• The withdrawal of British support would have likely caused Tony Blair to lose a parliamentary vote on the war, potentially altering the media climate and allowing UN inspectors more time to find nothing before an invasion.

Political Legacy & Future Implications

• The Iraq War has failed to establish a coherent foreign policy lesson for the Biden administration, which operates in parallel to previous doctrines like the "freedom agenda," Obama's "don't do stupid," or Trump's "America First."
• President-elect Joe Biden has acknowledged regret regarding his 2002 Senate vote to authorize the war, specifically noting he should have listened to a WMD expert who debunked the aluminum tube nuclear argument at the time.
• Biden's hesitancy during the Abbottabad bin Laden raid is interpreted by some as the result of a "sadder but wiser" approach, reflecting a cautious relationship with intelligence communities following the Iraq debacle.

Biden Administration Forecast

• Foreign Policy Priorities: Immediate focus on returning to "normalcy," increasing scrutiny of North Korea and Iran, and reassuring traditional allies (specifically Germany and Canada) whose relations frayed under the previous administration.
• Domestic Policy Constraints: Major legislative initiatives resembling the Obama-era stimulus or Affordable Care Act are unlikely due to a "frail" Democratic majority in the House.
• Primary Domestic Actions: Expectation of governance via executive orders, including acceleration of vaccine dissemination, further pandemic stimulus, and rolling back Trump-era deregulations on environmental issues.