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Russia: how Putin is silencing his opponents
- Russia is projected to shift from preventive repression to the "elimination of threat" following elite political struggles, creating a spiral where increased repression drives higher spending on police and security forces.
- The 2014 fiscal crisis is expected to have caused a ruble devaluation from which the currency has not recovered, while the legal system remains a tool of political power ensuring "almost certain conviction" for charged individuals.
- Authorities are predicted to treat Navalny's organization as equivalent to "ISIS," applying laws retrospectively to disqualify former coordinators and ban them from future elections under extremist organization charges.
- The Kremlin intends to use the pandemic as a repressive measure to disrupt opposition campaigns, while journalists diverging from the official narrative face branding as "foreign agents" or "undesirable organizations," with the latter carrying prison sentences of several years for cooperation.
- Protesters and students risk up to three years in prison for involvement in dangerous activities, and opposition figures like Violetta Grudina anticipate targeted intimidation, including arrests on drug trafficking charges, alongside a growing political exodus described as the largest since the 1970s.
- Putin is expected to retain office for at least 16 years following 2020 amendments due to personal vested interests, ensuring the opposition cannot compete in the 2024 presidential election.
- The regime is expected to attempt to regain control of an information space where online sources rose from 18% to 45% in five years by forcing foreign platforms, particularly YouTube, to censor content.
- Public apathy is anticipated to persist despite worse financial conditions than a decade ago, even as fear of repression reaches an all-time high, with a near-zero probability of Putin or his cronies retaining wealth or retiring peacefully if power is lost.