Lecture, Interview, Fireside Chat, Webinar
Sarah Paine — How Russia sabotaged China's rise
- Russia-China relations are predicted to remain "more glacial than cordial" rather than cordial, with a trajectory where Russia may eventually fall under a "Chinese yoke" due to historical dynamics and Putin's strategy to avoid "two front wars" by destabilizing neighbors.
- Vladimir Putin is expected to exhaust Russia's assets in Ukraine without purpose, leaving Siberia vulnerable to Chinese ambitions for resources like water from the Mekong, Yangtze, and Lake Baikal, while China's leverage grows as Russia's economy collapses under low oil prices.
- China is projected to hold "nine times the population" and "nine times a GMP of Russia," creating a power asymmetry where Xi Jinping is expected to eventually decide he has sufficient leverage to extract favorable trade terms and resources as Russia's desperation for loans increases.
- The speaker anticipates Russia's internal situation is devolving rapidly, potentially mirroring North Korea as a "draining" state that exports wealth for poor returns, or facing a nightmare scenario of invasion similar to the Gorbachev era.
- It is predicted that the current "bromance" between the leaders will end as Xi Jinping's fixation on Taiwan diverges from Putin's on Ukraine, though a hot war or nuclear conflict could "superglue" the two nations into a unified front.
- The United States risks strategically disastrous outcomes, including a "dust-up with China," if it engages in gratuitous trade wars or kills off its alliance system, as the U.S. lacks the population and industrial base to confront China alone.
- U.S. allies, specifically Finland and Sweden, are expected to abandon neutrality and join NATO following Russia's actions in Ukraine in 2022, driven by a historical pattern of an existential Russian threat that causes neighbors to "stampede" into defensive alliances.
- China is expected to prioritize stability over liberty to avoid internal chaos akin to the Cultural Revolution, likely relying on "jingoistic nationalism" to maintain legitimacy and prevent the CCP from falling.
- Strategic recommendations include the U.S. maximizing the economic growth of partners to create a "blast shield" against instability, while warning that going "it alone" with a "my way or the highway" strategy would be a historical error similar to Japan's past failures.
- It is warned that if the U.S. manages its cards correctly, the rivalry between Russia and China may allow the rest of the world to "maximize prosperity," though the final outcome of the Xi-Putin dynamic remains uncertain and could prove profoundly stupid.