Lecture, Interview
Sarah Paine – Why Russia Lost the Cold War
- The "China card" strategy and U.S.-China cooperation are projected to force the Soviet Union to establish a second militarized border with nuclear-armed mechanized forces, thereby financially overextending and wrecking its economy, while cumulative U.S. military and ideological strength under Presidents Nixon through Reagan is expected to defeat the Soviet Union.
- The U.S. is predicted to achieve a reliable second-strike capability and war termination through the aggressive deployment of nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed submarines targeting Soviet home waters by the late Cold War, a threat the Soviets cannot counter, leading to their demise as a major threat.
- Internal factors such as the "democratic contagion" spreading from one Warsaw Bloc country, simultaneous revolts of nationalities, and the inability of the central planning system to prevent capital and labor misallocation are cited as the primary drivers of the Soviet Union's "suicide" and collapse rather than external murder.
- Specific economic and political events are forecasted, including Gorbachev's glasnost and perestroika reforms resonating abroad, the Polish Communist Party's election rule changes leading to Solidarity winning every seat, and the opening of the Berlin Wall marking an irreversible end to East Germany.
- Economic projections indicate Soviet growth stagnation starting in the mid-70s at rates one to two percent lower than the U.S., a crash in the Eastern Bloc's share of world GDP from 1985 to 1998, and double-digit negative shrinkage in Soviet GDP growth, while the Soviet economy becomes exhausted by arms race spending and third-world support.
- Gorbachev is predicted to commit significant errors, including believing Eastern Europe would adopt "socialism with a human face," assuming the Warsaw Pact and COMECON would vanish alongside NATO, and underestimating U.S. support for a unified Germany in NATO.
- The dissolution of the Soviet Union is detailed through the removal of Article 6 from the constitution by Boris Yeltsin, the signing of the Belovezh Accords by Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, and the realization that the collapse was not inevitable but required a confluence of internal, ideological, economic, and military factors.
- German unification is described as being facilitated by the confluence of George Bush Sr. and Helmut Kohl, involving West Germany providing billions of Deutschmarks, specifically 15 billion to repatriate Soviet soldiers and pay Hungary to open borders, while acknowledging Stalin's territorial changes with Poland to avoid humiliating Gorbachev.
- The Cold War's end is expected to prioritize the termination of the conflict over regime change in Iraq, with a ground war in the Gulf ending after 100 hours, while Western European nations like France and Britain are noted as favoring this outcome to protect their economies.
- Historical dependencies are highlighted, noting that the Soviet Union's ability to sustain itself until the late 20th century relied on massive Siberian oil fields discovered in the late 1950s, which generated 80% of hard currency earnings from 1973 to 1985 to subsidize the Red Army and Eastern Europe.
- Post-collapse scenarios for Russia include an implosion of living standards lasting 20 years, followed by an economic recovery and rise in Putin's popularity from 2000 to 2008 driven by oil prices rising from $10 to $140 a barrel, contrasting with better recoveries in Eastern Europe due to Western connections.
- Technological failures such as missing the plastics and computer revolutions, coupled with Gorbachev's political reforms preceding economic fixes, are identified as causes for the failure to compete with the West and the inability to sustain a command economy.
- Western nations are expected to provide free consulting and expertise to Eastern European nations to build legal and financial systems, a contrast to the approach in Russia, while the industrialized world is predicted to maintain a "cold" status without nuclear conflict, though the West faces risks if it destroys its own institutions and allies.