Podcast
Shoal searching: the South China sea simmers
- A bilateral agreement between the Philippines and China regarding Sierra Madre resupply has passed the immediate risk of a flashpoint escalating into a larger conflict, though longer-term skirmishes in the South China Sea remain a risk.
- China is expected to conduct inspections of resupply vessels from a distance of several hundred meters, while the transparency initiative sharing real-time incident details is projected to continue, potentially encouraging European, Japanese, and New Zealand nations to voice concerns over rising risks.
- The United States is unlikely to engage in war over reefs and rocks in the South China Sea, creating a risk that its security guarantees could face scrutiny if a Philippine sailor were killed without a US military response.
- Loss of credibility in US security guarantees could prompt other Indo-Pacific treaty allies to question alliance benefits, and close coordination between the Philippines and the US regarding vessel locations is deemed necessary to avoid risks exceeding American willingness to intervene.
- An additional incident in the South China Sea carries the risk of destabilizing regional security by causing allies to question American commitments, whereas China is not expected to be as determined to override international concerns in this area compared to core interests like Xinjiang or Hong Kong.
- Uncertainty remains high regarding future events in Gaza, with Dima and her family unable to predict daily outcomes, and her area potentially facing further targeting, though Dima hopes the current hardship ends and that an old life can be reclaimed in the Philippines, albeit without a guaranteed timeline.
- The Economist is expected to release further stories from Dima over the coming weeks detailing her life in Gaza.
- Wolf populations in Europe are projected to crash if protections under the 1979 conservation convention are withdrawn following the EU's recent decision to downgrade wolf status, which is expected to lead to increased shooting of wolves over time.
- Withdrawal of protections is anticipated to alter the ecosystem to an older state characterized by controlled wolf populations, resulting in more deer and fewer trees, while the conflict regarding wolves is expected to endure for some time.
- Farmers are expected to continue facing costs and pressures from green legislation attributed to EU-level politicians, while hard-right parties, including Alternative for Germany, are expected to persist in demanding rapid wolf control action.