Shock and thaw: Syria’s frozen war resumes

Syrian Civil War Resurgence

• On November 27, a rebel coalition launched a surprise offensive in northwestern Syria, breaking a stalemate that had lasted since 2020.
  • Within 48 hours, rebels captured the city of Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, and seized control of smaller towns in the region.
  • Insurgents destroyed statues dedicated to the Assad family, who have ruled since 1971, while the regime responded with airstrikes leaving bodies in the streets of central Aleppo and Idlib.
• The rebel advance is driven primarily by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group that split from al-Qaeda in 2017.
  • HTS has professionalized its military capabilities, established a local government in Idlib, and opened a military college to train officers.
  • Leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani has attempted to moderate the group's image by reassuring minorities of their safety and funding church reconstruction.
• The timing of the offensive exploits the diminished capacity of the Assad regime's key external supporters.
  • Hezbollah has lost an estimated 4,000 fighters and much of its leadership while fighting Israel, reducing its ability to reinforce Syria.
  • Russia has withdrawn thousands of troops from Syria since 2022 to prioritize the war in Ukraine and has not re-prioritized Syrian operations.
  • Iranian military infrastructure in Syria has been degraded by over a year of Israeli airstrikes.
• Turkey maintains a significant influence in the northwest, treating the area as a de facto protectorate.
  • The Syrian National Army, a Turkish proxy force, operates in the region where residents use the Turkish lira.
  • It remains unclear whether Turkey will extend protection to the captured territories of Aleppo to prevent a Syrian regime counter-offensive.
• Civilians face renewed threats despite the regime's unpopularity.
  • Airstrikes by Syrian and Russian jets have resumed, targeting civilians in Idlib and Aleppo.
  • Residents express unease regarding both the return of the Assad regime's brutality and the potential governance of the previously radicalized HTS.

The Impossibility of Digital Erasure

• Journalist Avantika Chilkoti attempted to remove her digital footprint to mitigate security risks, specifically after reporting on the Modi government in India where female journalists face harassment and doxxing.
  • The process revealed that while social media platforms offer data deletion tools, deleting a digital identity entirely is effectively impossible in the current era.
  • Even after deleting profiles, professional requirements necessitate maintaining a LinkedIn presence to facilitate career networking.
• Search engine deletion laws have limited jurisdictional scope.
  • Google's EU-based privacy rules allow for the removal of search results only within the European Union, not globally.
  • Data removal services like "DeleteMe" can scrub data from scrapers but cannot erase the underlying data held by the platforms themselves.
• Corporate data harvesting creates a hidden layer of information unavailable to users.
  • Companies like Google aggregate data from YouTube, Gmail, and search queries to build comprehensive profiles used by insurers and marketers.
  • Removing this "invisible" data manually is estimated to require 100 hours of work and must be repeated every three months.
• Security experts recommend practical mitigation strategies rather than total deletion.
  • Users should opt out of data personalization and location settings on all devices.
  • Avoiding public Wi-Fi for sensitive transactions (e.g., banking) and using commercial VPNs are critical precautions.
  • Caution is advised when inputting data into AI tools, as this information is also stored and processed.

Market Reactions to Trump's Re-election

• Following Donald Trump's re-election, US stock markets surged on expectations of lower taxes, reduced regulation, and higher growth.
  • The S&P 500 rose 2.5% the day after the election.
  • The Russell 2000 (small-cap companies) surged 6%, outperforming large-cap indices.
• Specific sectors are designated as primary beneficiaries of a second Trump administration, dubbed "Trump trades."
  • Financial services shares rose 13%, anticipating eased capital requirements and relaxed merger scrutiny.
  • Private prison stocks (CoreCivic and GeoGroup) soared, driven by promises of the largest deportation in US history, which may involve private sector outsourcing.
  • Crypto-related assets rallied, with Bitcoin up 45%, following Trump's pledge to make the US the "crypto capital of the planet."
• Some anticipated market winners have underperformed or corrected since the election.
  • Steel company shares, which rose 13% on Election Day, have since fallen due to uncertainty over future trade policies.
  • Oil and gas driller stocks experienced an 8% initial bounce but have since returned to pre-election levels.
  • Trump Media & Technology Group shares have tumbled, indicating that investing directly in the president-elect's ventures is not guaranteed to yield returns.