Should Latin America replicate El Salvador’s President Bukele’s crackdown on gangs? | The Economist

El Salvador's Security Model and Democratization

• President Nayib Bukele is characterized as the most popular politician in Latin America, maintaining high support despite being labeled a "self-declared dictator."
• El Salvador's murder rate has dropped from over 50 per 100,000 inhabitants prior to Bukele's tenure to a level comparable to Canada's.
• To achieve this reduction, the state has imprisoned approximately 2% of the adult population based on anonymous tips and minimal evidence.
• The strategy involves eliminating due process, including a single judge presiding over trials for nearly 500 defendants simultaneously in April.
• Bukele's approach effectively dismantles the extortion gangs' hold on neighborhoods by shifting the balance of fear, making gangs afraid of community snitching.
• The model has facilitated the rapid erosion of democratic institutions:
  • The military was deployed into Parliament to override legislative opposition under the guise of national security.
  • The Supreme Court was purged to remove judicial obstacles.
  • The political trajectory points toward Bukele becoming "president for life."
• Robert argues that while the specific tactic of undermining democracy is not "exportable" to other nations seeking stability, the willingness to do so is a replicable behavior for authoritarian consolidation.
• Critics note the model extends beyond gang suppression to targeting journalists and dissidents, utilizing security as a pretext for consolidating executive power.

Comparative Analysis: Extortion vs. Drug Trafficking

• The economic business models of Salvadoran extortion gangs differ fundamentally from Andean cocaine producers and smugglers.
• Extortion gangs extract roughly 16% of GDP and operate by intimidating local populations who are eager to report them to authorities.
• Cocaine production relies on farmers who cultivate the crop only because drug syndicates pay higher prices than legal alternatives (e.g., pineapples).
• Unlike extortion victims, coca farmers and drug buyers actively participate in and sustain the trade due to the high profitability generated by prohibition.
• Removing a drug gang leader creates a vacancy that is immediately filled by competitors due to the astronomical profits of the illicit trade.

Limitations of Traditional Counter-Drug Strategies

• Robert describes counter-narcotics operations in Colombia as "security theater" primarily designed to satisfy US aid conditions rather than reduce supply.
• Data indicates that while the US and Colombian military claim to uproot significant hectares of coca (e.g., 100,000 hectares), replacement planting often exceeds eradication rates, leading to increased total harvests.
• Former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos characterized these efforts as "riding a stationary bicycle" to meet external demands without changing the outcome.
• Aggressive crackdowns on drug cartels historically increase violence by igniting turf wars between competing gangs.
• A former left-wing approach in Colombia (Gustavo Petro's "Paz Total" or "Total Peace") involving negotiations with gangs resulted in gang expansion rather than reduction.

Proposed Strategic Path Forward

• One speaker disagrees with Robert's assertion that force leads only to violence, citing the Bush-era crackdown where coca cultivation multiplied fivefold over a decade, proving both aggressive military action and negotiation failed.
• The panel agrees that the only way to permanently end the cocaine business is the legalization of the drug.
• To make measurable progress without legalization, a "forceful approach" must be combined with genuine police work targeting financial networks.
• Military tactics like bombing jungle locations are deemed ineffective; they merely create supply shortages that drive up prices, incentivizing new entrants into the trade.
• A viable strategy requires the threat of force against gangsters paired with investigative police work to dismantle money laundering operations and disrupt the business infrastructure.