Should the world fear Trump-Putin-Xi collusion? | The Economist

Potential Summit and Agenda

• Rumors suggest Chinese officials may be keeping agenda items open on the periphery of the APEC summit for a potential meeting between Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin.
• The Chinese government officially states it has no information regarding a formal tripartite meeting.
• A proposed topic of discussion is nuclear disarmament, specifically with Trump expressing interest in a "nuclear agenda" for dialogue between the three powers.

Strategic Motivations and Concerns

• Vladimir Putin:
  • Seeks to elevate his status by engaging in a "Yalta-style" table of superpowers to exclude European leaders and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky from decision-making.
  • Aims to frame Russia's war in Ukraine as a victory by preventing nuclear war, despite lacking tangible military breakthroughs to showcase.
  • Operates under the delusion of establishing a sovereign, isolated sphere for Russian AI and internet infrastructure, ignoring the vulnerability of data centers to cyber-attacks.
• Donald Trump:
  • Driven by a "fantasy" of performing diplomacy with leaders who hold total dominance over their nations.
  • Perceived as underprepared and lacking clear intent, raising concerns about potential "ambushes" or rash concessions.
  • Unlikely to successfully enforce a sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere, as evidenced by the election of Lula in Brazil and pushback from allies like Mark Carney.
• Xi Jinping:
  • China has historically refused to discuss nuclear arms control while maintaining an arsenal smaller than that of the US and Russia.

Historical Parallels: The Yalta Comparison

• Analysts draw a parallel to the 1945 Yalta Conference, where Stalin successfully carved out Eastern Europe as a Soviet sphere, ignoring the wishes of local populations.
• A key irony highlighted is that just as FDR misunderstood the Soviet threat in 1945, Trump currently misunderstands the threat posed by Putin.
• Unlike 1945, the modern world cannot support a "Yalta-style" division because:
  • Geography alone no longer guarantees security or control.
  • Maintaining spheres of influence requires significant resources and "hard work," which is difficult in a changing global power structure.
  • Technological shifts, particularly in AI, create power dynamics that traditional imperial models cannot address.

Future Outlook and Structural Reality

• The potential return to a 19th-century "spheres of influence" model or a post-WWII order is deemed impossible; the world has fundamentally changed.
• The current geopolitical landscape is described as the "end of an old world order," with a new order yet to emerge.
• Long-term projections suggest Russia will hold significantly less global relevance within thirty years, regardless of current high-level diplomacy.
• AI and technological dominance are creating a bifurcated world with an American and Chinese tech stack, leaving Russia as an "also-ran" unable to catch up.