Lecture, Keynote
Should we be worried about technology?
- Public perception of technology is forecast to oscillate between dystopian and utopian views, with the 2020s expected to resemble the grim aesthetic of "Blade Runner" rather than the optimistic "Jetsons" predictions, though the rapid vaccine development of 2020 may temporarily restore optimism regarding scientific capability.
- Technology usage among Americans is projected to remain critical, rising from 6 hours 49 minutes daily prior to the pandemic to over seven hours in 2020, with users likely to remain indifferent until systems fail or cause unforeseen negative consequences such as cybercrime and ransomware attacks.
- Historical analysis indicates that humanity has swung between optimism and pessimism since the 18th century, where short-term hardships for workers and populations in the 1820s eventually gave way to long-term gains like life expectancy rising from 34 to 50 years in Britain (1760–1901) and a 27% increase in adult literacy (1760–1850).
- Future outlooks include a "tech lash" replacing 1990s utopian internet expectations, with regulators expected to adopt nimble, sandbox-style approaches to manage risks like social media extremism and historical parallels to fears regarding foreign oil dependence and overpopulation from the 1970s.
- Humanity faces material obligations to address the consequences of 200 years of industrialization through increased innovation in solar panels, electric cars, and geoengineering, requiring predictions that avoid repeating past errors such as the 1890s failure of automobiles to eliminate pollution and congestion.
- Long-term predictions suggest that while history shows public opinion often swings too far in one direction, recognizing these patterns will help society avoid extreme pessimism or optimism, leading to a future defined by more innovation rather than stagnation.