Should we deliberately intervene in the climate? | Kelly Wanser (2021)

Organizational Mission & Context

• Kelly Wenzel is the Executive Director of Silver Lining, the only non-profit globally focused exclusively on near-term climate risk and climate intervention research.
• Silver Lining launched a research fund last year and actively lobbies for R&D funding in the U.S. and international cooperation frameworks.
• The organization aims to ensure society has sufficient options to constrain or reduce warming if the Earth system becomes unstable.
• Wenzel notes that current projections indicate at least 2°C of warming is already "baked in" even if Paris Agreement commitments are met, a level scientists consider potentially unsafe.

Current Climate Intervention Activity

• Deliberate Weather Modification: Massive programs exist to increase precipitation, including a China program the size of Alaska targeting the Tibetan plateau.
• U.S. Snowfall Enhancement: Colorado and California employ cloud seeding to increase snowpack, aiming to improve water tables and reduce drought.
• International Precipitation Efforts: The UAE maintains a $400 million fund for rainmaking R&D; Indonesia has conducted rounds of offshore particle injection to induce rain and reduce flooding.
• Great Barrier Reef Test: A small-scale test was conducted to explore mechanisms for brightening clouds to protect the reef from warming.
• Accidental Cooling: Global particulate pollution (non-CO2) creates a natural cooling effect by brightening clouds, visible as ship tracks; this is currently estimated to offset a significant amount of warming unknowingly.
• Historical Precedent: The 1930s-40s Great Plains Shelter Belt program successfully reversed desertification and altered regional climate conditions through tree planting.

Technical Approaches to Climate Intervention

• Stratospheric Aerosol Injection:
  • Mechanism: Injecting particles (analogous to volcanic eruptions like Mt. Pinatubo) into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight.
  • Effectiveness: Scientists are confident in modeling the amount of sunlight reflection but face challenges regarding long-term atmospheric chemistry.
  • Key Risks: Potential for altered atmospheric circulation due to stratospheric heating; unknown impacts on the ozone layer.
  • Feasibility: High barrier to entry; requires aircraft capable of reaching ~20km altitude, global climate models, and supercomputers, making rogue deployment unlikely.
• Marine Cloud Brightening:
  • Mechanism: Spraying salt particles into marine stratocumulus clouds to increase reflectivity and create cool zones.
  • Effectiveness: Magnitude of cooling is highly uncertain (uncertainty bars in IPCC reports exceed 1°C); may be small or large.
  • Duration: Effects last only days to a week, requiring continuous operation (e.g., ships misting clouds along routes).
  • Operational Cost: Estimated at tens of billions annually, though still marginal compared to climate disaster costs (e.g., Hurricane Michael at $80B, wildfires at $180B).

Debates and Objections

• Moral Hazard: The primary objection is that researching interventions may reduce societal motivation to decarbonize; Wenzel argues this is unproven and that discussing risks could actually increase urgency.
• Centralization of Power: Concerns exist that wealthy nations could manipulate the climate to their advantage, creating geopolitical disparities; Silver Lining advocates for open-access data and scientific cooperation to mitigate this.
• Delayed Deployment: Critics like John Halstead argue research should wait 30–40 years until warming justifies the risk; Wenzel counters that a billion people face immediate displacement and suffering that warrants exploration of potential solutions now.
• Termination Shock: The risk that stopping interventions abruptly (e.g., due to war or pandemic) causes temperatures to skyrocket; Wenzel views this as manageable with continuity planning.
• Weaponization: Wenzel dismisses the likelihood of climate intervention becoming an effective weapon due to its slow, linear, and hard-to-target nature compared to nuclear or biological weapons.
• Attribution Liability: Legal challenges exist regarding who is responsible for weather extremes if interventions are used; proposed solutions include collective compensation structures rather than specific attribution.

Governance and Public Perception

• Naming and Framing: The term "geoengineering" carries negative baggage; Wenzel prefers "climate interventions" and focuses the narrative on "safety" and "loss of life" to gain bipartisan traction.
• International Cooperation: Wenzel cites the Montreal Protocol as a successful model for science-based global agreement, contrasting it with recent UN failures to commission climate intervention reports due to political gridlock.
• Public Acceptance: There is a paradox where people tolerate unintended negative side effects of profit-driven actions (e.g., pollution) but reject intentional actions aimed at "doing good."
• Research Investment: The U.S. federal budget for all climate/weather research is approximately $2.6 billion, a level Wenzel describes as "irrational" given the scale of the problem.

Career and Future Path

• Silver Lining Hiring: The organization is seeking senior communications professionals and legislative experts in the U.S., as well as senior research teams in atmospheric science.
• Recommended Backgrounds: While atmospheric and climate science are central, the field benefits from interdisciplinary skills in engineering, systems analysis, and science policy.
• Key Research Institutions: The National Center for Atmospheric Research, Pacific Northwest National Lab, UK Met Office (Hadley Centre), and Sorbonne University are identified as leaders in modeling and experimentation.
• Upcoming Resources: Silver Lining is releasing a second edition of "Ensuring a Safe Climate" and a National Academies follow-up report is in the works.
• Technology Trends: Wenzel highlights the potential return of blimps (non-flammable helium alternatives) for atmospheric monitoring and wireless networks.