Singapore Defence Minister & Coordinating Minister for Public Services, Chan Chun Sing | Asia Summit

Global Context and Risks

• The world is undergoing accelerated, unpredictable change driven by forces beyond individual personalities.
• Current economic stagnation, societal fragmentation, and rising conflict risks mirror the pre-World War II era of the late 1920s and early 1930s.
• Key warning signs include weakening globalization forces, sub-optimal global productive capacity, inflationary pressures, and wage stagnation.
• Rising inequality and the perception of being "left behind" are fueling nativist and protectionist political cycles.
• Technology offers immense potential but requires robust rules and guardrails to prevent becoming a negative force.

Future Scenarios and Strategic Analysis

• Two extreme scenarios exist: continued global fragmentation into isolated blocks or a return to a fully integrated global system.
• Both extremes are deemed unlikely; the actual trajectory depends on deliberate political and corporate action.
• The primary barrier to global cooperation is domestic politics; cohesive societies are required to build confidence for international integration.
• Populist politics often favors short-term, easy solutions over the long-term investment required to address inequality.
• Correct Solution: Governments must use public expenditure to retrain and upskill those left behind, a process requiring political will that extends beyond single election terms.
• Goal: Grow the economic "pie" to ensure those left behind have absolute or relative hope of keeping pace, thereby maintaining social cohesion.

Singapore's Four Unchanging Competitive Advantages

• Political Stability and Long-term Execution:
  • Singapore prioritizes policy consistency over time, exemplified by the 20-year journey to establish English as the primary business language (started in 1960, fully implemented in 1980s).
  • This consistency attracts businesses requiring 10–15 year investment gestation periods.
• Progressive Rule of Law:
  • The rule of law is applied to enable "good and better things," not just prevent bad outcomes.
  • Agencies like the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) evolve rules rapidly to pioneer financial innovation while maintaining ethical guardrails.
• Strategic Partnerships:
  • Singapore is forging partnerships with both countries and corporations, noting some companies exceed the GDP of smaller nations.
  • Key Agreements: The US Free Trade Agreement (FTAs) remains the "gold standard"; the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DIPA) series (with New Zealand and Chile) sets new digital rules.
  • Singapore continues to champion minilateralism and multilateralism to prevent global fragmentation.
• Lifelong Investment in People:
  • Singapore shifted focus from the first 15 years of schooling to the next 50 years of a citizen's life via the SkillsFuture movement.
  • Objective: Retrain people to match the shortening lifespans of Fortune 500 companies and protect people rather than just specific jobs.

Call to Action for Corporate and Industry Leaders

• Voice for Integration: Industry leaders must urge political counterparts to adopt new rules for a more integrated global economy, counterbalancing nativist instincts.
• Avoid Prisoner's Dilemma: Corporations must resist protectionist tendencies to ensure better collective global outcomes.
• Invest in Talent (Enlightened Self-Interest):
  • Corporates must invest in employee development to help workers displaced by technology or fragmentation.
  • Providing hope and upskilling opportunities ensures the electorate supports the current system, preventing a rise in protectionism.

Conclusion

• No outcome is inevitable; hope alone is not a strategy.
• The path forward requires collaboration between governments and the private sector to balance local stability with global optimization.
• Without shared prosperity and investment in people, the world risks descending into dangerous nativism and protectionism.