Panel, Conference Presentation
Social Media and the Social Contract: Which Comes First?
- Experts predict a systemic industry-wide reckoning regarding data ownership, democracy, and attention, with problems described as "boiling under the surface for 15 plus years" and "all spilling out at once."
- Anticipated regulatory outcomes include the likely passage of the "honest ads bill," the implementation of GDPR in Europe in May, and inevitable but uncertain U.S. federal regulation contingent on a political climate supportive of tech-savvy leadership, alongside state-level progress in California on privacy and BOTS legislation.
- Financial and operational forecasts suggest Facebook will remain "virtually impenetrable" with advertisers unable to leave, "historic profits" rising due to AI making data more valuable, and the "Delete Facebook" campaign failing to significantly drop user numbers or revenue while potentially shifting internal culture.
- Concerns regarding Facebook's operational capacity include a lack of local language engineers hindering moderation in conflict zones like the Philippines and Sri Lanka, and predictions that automation will make controlling the system increasingly difficult, necessitating a shift to "social and cultural genes."
- Proposed solutions and future models include a "data dividend" involving a 5% royalty on revenues to fund a sovereign wealth fund, the potential transformation into a "global public benefit corporation," and the Center for Humane Technology's goal to redesign the technology stack to account for human vulnerability.
- Predictions for user behavior and technology trends include continued addiction to devices, the augmentation of existing platforms by augmented reality rather than replacement, and the possibility that the current era of social media may be viewed 5 to 10 years in the future as a "big stupid waste of time."
- Risk factors identified include the perception of Facebook as "far more dangerous" due to executive arrogance and a lack of receptiveness, the prediction that the company "has no friends left" among media partners, and the potential for UN bodies to label the platform a "principal amplifier" of conflict.
- Specific technological capabilities such as "FB Learner Flow" are expected to allow the platform to predict user loyalty, low self-esteem, and opinion changes, while simple user interventions like turning off notifications or using "gray scale" modes are predicted to make a "big difference" in reducing addiction triggers.